Aryna Sabalenka vs Shelby RogersPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 8–1
🇺🇸Shelby Rogers
Unranked · 33 yrs · Right-Handed
105wAryna Sabalenka and Shelby Rogers have met 4 times since 2022; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch in 2022 on grass. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–0. Sabalenka has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 8 sets to Rogers's 1. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Miami Open - Miami (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Rogers | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Shelby Rogers | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | — | ||
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Rogers 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Rogers
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Mar 24, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 19, 2023
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 18, 2022
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 11, 2022
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Semifinals
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | - |
| ROI % | -23.4% | - |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | — |
| Route | CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 27
Elina Svitolina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 6
Robin Montgomery
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Qinwen Zheng
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 2nd Round
May 9
Lisa Pigato
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 1st Round
May 7
Marketa Vondrousova
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 2nd Round
Apr 26
Shuai Zhang
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 1st Round
Apr 24
Veronika Kudermetova
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston · 2nd Round
Apr 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 60–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | - |
| Sets won | 79% | - |
| Games won | 59% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 2 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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