Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton StearnsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–1
🇺🇸Peyton Stearns
#54 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns have met 3 times since 2024; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Stearns's 1. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Peyton Stearns | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 84% | 42/50 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 70% | 7/10 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 25% | 15/60 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 69% | 41/59 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 53% | 8/15 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 45/49 | 90% | 18/20 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 42/49 | 75% | 15/20 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Stearns 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Stearns
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 23, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 29, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 9, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Peyton Stearns | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 7/7 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 5 or more | 73% | 11/15 | 43% | 3/7 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 3/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.16 | 1.75 |
| ROI % | -23.4% | -35.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.75u | -3.22u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 1,228 mi · 1,977 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | ECU → CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Stearns's 14%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 06 63 46 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | W 26 76 64 | L 46 63 57 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | L 16 36 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | L 64 46 26 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 64 16 76 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | L 46 57 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 16 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Clara Tauson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Harriet Dart
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Elena Gabriela Ruse
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Elvina Kalieva
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Tatiana Prozorova
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mary Stoiana
The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round
Jul 29
Nikola Bartunkova
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Kimberly Birrell
Eastbourne
Jun 21
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–60 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 83% | 51% |
| Sets won | 79% | 53% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.