Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton StearnsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–1
🇺🇸Peyton Stearns
#37 · 24 yrs · Right-Handed
3Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns have met 3 times since 2024; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2024 on hard. On clay courts Sabalenka leads 2–0. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Stearns's 1. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Peyton Stearns | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 76% | 19/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 48% | 11/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 35% | 17/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 56% | 10/18 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 85% | 23/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 70% | 19/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 2, Stearns 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Stearns
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Aryna Sabalenka and Peyton Stearns are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 23, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 29, 2025
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Mar 9, 2024
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Stearns | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Peyton Stearns | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 14/14 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 50% | 7/14 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 43% | 6/14 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 1.76 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -15.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -2.22u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 3 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 7 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 8,184 mi · 13,171 km |
| Route | ROU | UKR → ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (89% vs Stearns's 22%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 46 36 | L 46 63 57 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | L 46 26 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | W 76 75 |
| Mccartney Kessler | W 61 76 | L 06 63 46 |
| Daria Kasatkina | W 60 75 | L 16 36 |
| Madison Keys | W 63 63 | L 64 46 26 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | W 64 16 76 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 61 64 | L 46 57 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 63 36 63 | L 16 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Han Shi
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Viktorija Golubic
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Iva Jovic
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Final
Sep 19
Liudmila Samsonova
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Semifinals
Sep 19
Sloane Stephens
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Diane Parry
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 2nd Round
Sep 15
Emiliana Arango
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · 1st Round
Sep 13
Harriet Dart
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 52% |
| Sets won | 79% | 54% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 1000 | 3 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Stearns |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 2 | 0 |
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