Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Victoria Quinde SerranoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#2 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 6–0
🇪🇨Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
#67 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Aryna Sabalenka and Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano have met 3 times since 2021; Aryna Sabalenka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2021 on grass. Sabalenka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Sabalenka has taken 6 sets to Serrano's 0. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Sabalenka | Victoria Quinde Serrano | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 86% | 44/51 | 64% | 18/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 64% | 7/11 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 23% | 14/62 | 39% | 20/51 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 70% | 42/60 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | — | 92% | 11/12 | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 68% | 13/19 | 31% | 4/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 48/51 | 88% | 23/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 86% | 44/51 | 69% | 18/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Sabalenka 3, Victoria Quinde Serrano 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Serrano
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 31, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Apr 29, 2023
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 3rd Round
Jul 2, 2021
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Sabalenka | Serrano | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Aryna Sabalenka | Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 64% | 7/11 |
| 3 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 5 or more | 67% | 10/15 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 10 or more | 27% | 4/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 2–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.17 | 3.03 |
| ROI % | -18.6% | -52.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.61u | -2.60u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Sabalenka | Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 4 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 654 mi · 1,053 km |
| Route | ROU | ROU → CZE |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Serrano's 10%).
| Opponent | Sabalenka | Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | W 62 46 63 | L 67 64 26 |
| Linda Noskova | W 76 36 76 | L 36 64 26 |
| Taylor Townsend | W 64 63 | L 63 36 36 |
| Ann Li | W 76 64 | L 16 26 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 67 64 46 | L 36 67 |
| Naomi Osaka | L 26 67 | L 26 57 |
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 64 64 | L 36 16 |
| Barbora Krejcikova | W 62 63 | L 26 61 57 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 64 | L 64 26 57 |
| Iva Jovic | W 63 60 | W 46 76 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Nikola Bartunkova
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Renata Zarazua
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Final
Sep 12
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Linda Noskova
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Taylor Townsend
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Kamilla Rakhimova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Polina Iatcenko
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Katie Volynets
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Tyra Caterina Grant
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Lanlana Tararudee
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Ann Li
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–62 matches
| Metric | Sabalenka | Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 82% | 55% |
| Sets won | 79% | 54% |
| Games won | 59% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Sabalenka | Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Sabalenka | Serrano |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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