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Head-to-Head

Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

MV

🇪🇨Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano

#58 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed

3
1–3

4 meetings · sets 3–6

Naomi Osaka

🇯🇵Naomi Osaka

#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed

Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times since 2022; Naomi Osaka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–1. Osaka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Serrano has taken 3 sets to Osaka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorVictoria Quinde SerranoOsaka
Wins in straight sets63%69%
Wins a set when losing40%33%
Goes to a deciding set38%32%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite78%52%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog91%67%
Tiebreak sets won33%64%
Wins after taking set 192%88%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 165%65%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Victoria Quinde Serrano 1, Osaka 2).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Serrano

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance
vs

Osaka

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Matchup analysis

🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

4 career meetings, newest first

Apr 23, 2026

Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid

C Clay · 2nd Round

26
57
Osaka

Mar 8, 2026

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

H Hard · 3rd Round

16
63
16
Osaka

Mar 5, 2025

BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells

H Hard · 1st Round

64
64
Serrano

Jan 17, 2022

Australian Open - Melbourne

H Hard · 1st Round

36
36
Osaka

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeSerranoOsaka
1 or more88%100%
3 or more38%88%
5 or more13%81%
10 or more0%6%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricSerranoOsaka
W-L1–312–4
Avg odds2.581.66
ROI %-60.0%+7.9%
Units P/L-2.40u+1.27u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricSerranoOsaka
Countries32
Events32
Matches46
Distance1,715 mi · 2,760 km350 mi · 563 km
RouteCAN → POL → AUTAUT → CAN

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Serrano's 50%).

OpponentSerranoOsaka
Panna Udvardy
L
57
36
W
62
64
Ekaterina Alexandrova
L
36
67
W
62
62
Alexandra Eala
W
64
64
L
46
26
Karolina Muchova
L
64
26
57
L
67
46
Linda Noskova
L
36
64
26
L
67
36
Iva Jovic
W
46
76
63
W
76
67
64
Donna Vekic
W
26
63
75
W
76
64
Antonia Ruzic
W
61
63
W
63
36
64

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Serrano
LLLWLWLW
L

Ann Li

Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round

16
26

Aug 25

L

Taylor Townsend

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

63
36
36

Aug 13

L

Ekaterina Alexandrova

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

36
647

Aug 4

W

Lucrezia Stefanini

National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round

764
63

Aug 3

L

Anastasia Zakharova

The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 2nd Round

46
36

Jul 29

W

Storm Hunter

The Memphis Classic - Memphis · 1st Round

75
75

Jul 28

L

Linda Noskova

Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round

36
64
26

Jul 2

W

Simona Waltert

Wimbledon - London · 1st Round

62
61

Jun 30

Osaka
LWWWLWLW
L

Elena Rybakina

National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals

64
657
46

Aug 12

W

Leylah Fernandez

National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round

64
64

Aug 10

W

Elise Mertens

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

61
62

Aug 8

W

Panna Udvardy

National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round

62
64

Aug 6

L

Alexandra Eala

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals

46
26

Aug 1

W

Elisabetta Cocciaretto

Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals

46
64
63

Jul 31

L

Karolina Muchova

Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals

647
46

Jul 7

W

Aryna Sabalenka

Wimbledon - London · 4th Round

62
762

Jul 5

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ SerranoOsaka ahead↓ Osaka

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–47 matches

MetricSerranoOsaka
Matches won57%73%
Sets won55%67%
Games won53%57%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageSerranoOsaka
Grand Slam01
WTA 100012

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceSerranoOsaka
Hard12
Clay01

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Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano vs Naomi Osaka FAQ

Naomi Osaka leads the head-to-head 3–1 over 4 meetings.