Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇨Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
#67 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
4 meetings · sets 3–6
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano and Naomi Osaka have met 4 times since 2022; Naomi Osaka leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–1. Osaka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Serrano has taken 3 sets to Osaka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Victoria Quinde Serrano | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 64% | 18/28 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 39% | 20/51 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 7/11 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 92% | 11/12 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 31% | 4/13 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 23/26 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Victoria Quinde Serrano 1, Osaka 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Serrano
👑 The Complete Package
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 23, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Mar 8, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Mar 5, 2025
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 17, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Serrano | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 64% | 7/11 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 27% | 3/11 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 9% | 1/11 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Serrano | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–3 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 3.03 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -52.0% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.60u | -1.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Serrano | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 654 mi · 1,053 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | ROU → CZE | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Serrano's 40%).
| Opponent | Serrano | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Karolina Muchova | L 64 26 57 | L 57 61 67 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 61 64 | W 62 57 61 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | L 46 36 | W 76 76 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 26 46 | W 62 76 |
| Panna Udvardy | L 57 36 | W 62 64 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | L 36 67 | W 62 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 64 | L 46 26 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 76 63 | W 76 67 64 |
| Donna Vekic | W 26 63 75 | W 76 64 |
| Anhelina Kalinina | L 36 57 | W 61 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Katie Volynets
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Tyra Caterina Grant
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Lanlana Tararudee
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Ann Li
Abierto GNP Seguros - Monterrey · 1st Round
Aug 25
Taylor Townsend
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–51 matches
| Metric | Serrano | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 75% |
| Sets won | 54% | 68% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Serrano | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Serrano | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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