Andrey Rublev vs Rei SakamotoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 9 · 12:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 3.21 or longer, Rei Sakamoto has won 2 of 13 (15%). The price implied 24%, so Rei Sakamoto has fallen 9 points short of it.
At 1.36 or shorter, Andrey Rublev has won 175 of 237 (74%). The price implied 77%, so Andrey Rublev has fallen 3 points short of it.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Andrey Rublev takes on Rei Sakamoto in the second round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 9, meeting on hard court. Rublev, ranked 23rd, dropped his most recent match but has maintained a 60% win rate across his last ten after playing seven times in two weeks. Sakamoto, ranked 137th, arrives in sharp form with three consecutive wins and an 80% mark in his last five.
The two have never met. Rublev has won recent encounters against Jaime Faria and Matteo Arnaldi, while Sakamoto fell to both of those players; both men lost to Medvedev and Van Assche. On hard court, Rublev sits at 55% across a sample of recent matches, while Sakamoto holds 65% on the surface and is playing his fourth match in fourteen days.
Rublev relies on aggressive shot-making and power from the baseline to dictate points. Sakamoto builds his game on a strong serve and looks to shorten rallies rather than extend them. The match asks whether Sakamoto can hold serve and close out points early or whether Rublev's weight of shot will wear through over time.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Rublev | Sakamoto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Andrey Rublev | Rei Sakamoto | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 19/29 | 62% | 28/45 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 7/17 | 25% | 6/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 17/46 | 33% | 23/69 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 19/38 | 47% | 23/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 25% | 2/8 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 55% | 11/20 | 53% | 20/38 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 90% | 36/40 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 19/30 | 70% | 28/40 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Rublev
💥 Big Hitter
Sakamoto
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,927 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Rublev and Sakamoto have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Rublev | Sakamoto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Andrey Rublev | Rei Sakamoto | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 5 or more | 83% | 15/18 | 83% | 15/18 |
| 10 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 44% | 8/18 |
| 15 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 28% | 5/18 |
| 20 or more | 6% | 1/18 | 6% | 1/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Rublev | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–6 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.50 | 1.73 |
| ROI % | -7.4% | +11.2% |
| Units P/L | -1.33u | +2.01u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Rublev | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Rublev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Sakamoto's 13%).
| Opponent | Rublev | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Kyrian Jacquet | W 76 61 | W 76 46 76 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | W 64 62 63 | L 62 46 46 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 57 46 | L 76 36 16 |
| Luca Van Assche | L 63 36 46 | L 64 46 67 |
| Jaime Faria | W 64 63 46 75 | L 67 64 36 46 |
| Yibing Wu | W 36 62 61 | L 57 16 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 46 | L 46 67 |
| Lorenzo Sonego | W 62 63 | L 26 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex de Minaur
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Tallon Griekspoor
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Kyrian Jacquet
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Hugo Gaston
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rinky Hijikata
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Marco Trungelliti
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Seongchan Hong
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Anton Shepp
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NZL-JPN 1-3 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Ji Sung Nam
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Aleksandar Vukic
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Matchup videos
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 56–73 matches
| Metric | Rublev | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 63% |
| Sets won | 59% | 57% |
| Games won | 53% | 52% |