Alexandre Muller vs Daniil MedvedevPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alexandre Muller and Daniil Medvedev have met 3 times since 2016; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at St. Remy in 2016 on hard. Medvedev has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Muller has taken 2 sets to Medvedev's 7. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Muller | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alexandre Muller | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 8/14 | 71% | 29/41 |
| Wins a set when losing | 20% | 5/25 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 11/39 | 36% | 21/58 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 29% | 5/17 | 49% | 25/51 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 37% | 7/19 | 60% | 3/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 9/17 | 38% | 9/24 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 77% | 10/13 | 90% | 35/39 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 8/13 | 74% | 29/39 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Muller 0, Medvedev 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Muller
⚙️ Grinder
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
The 👑 The Complete Package archetype wins about 53% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 233 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniil Medvedev.
The Complete Package players often use elite serve & return and high bp conversion to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 9, 2025
Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters - Monte-Carlo
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 3, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 2nd Round
Sep 9, 2016
St. Remy
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Muller | Medvedev | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alexandre Muller | Daniil Medvedev | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Muller | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–6 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 3.80 | 1.26 |
| ROI % | -58.8% | -39.7% |
| Units P/L | -4.70u | -4.76u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Muller | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,829 mi · 9,381 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | SMR → GER → MEX | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Muller and Medvedev posted a 30% win rate.
| Opponent | Muller | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nakashima | W 62 75 | L 76 67 16 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 57 36 | L 36 67 |
| Jan-Lennard Struff | L 67 06 | L 67 67 57 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 67 76 76 | W 63 64 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 26 03 | L 36 46 |
| Rei Sakamoto | L 46 63 36 | W 67 63 61 |
| Yibing Wu | L 36 46 | L 75 67 46 |
| Fabian Marozsan | L 36 67 | W 62 67 64 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 46 26 | L 06 06 |
| Corentin Moutet | L 46 16 | L 67 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Guy Den Ouden
Hagen Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 3
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Marco Cecchinato
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Stefano Napolitano
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 27
Mariano Navone
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 20
Aleksandr Shevchenko
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Tommy Paul
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Martin Damm
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Botic van de Zandschulp
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Daniel Merida
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Marin Cilic
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Daniel Altmaier
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–66 matches
| Metric | Muller | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 38% | 70% |
| Sets won | 37% | 65% |
| Games won | 45% | 55% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Muller | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Muller | Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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