Alex Michelsen vs Francisco CerundoloPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Francisco Cerundolo have met 3 times since 2025; Alex Michelsen leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Terra Wortmann Open - Halle in 2025 on grass. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 4 sets to Cerundolo's 3. Their most recent meeting: Alex Michelsen won at National Bank Open - Montreal (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 75% | 21/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 28% | 5/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/54 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 61% | 17/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 59% | 13/22 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 28/28 | 84% | 26/31 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 68% | 21/31 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 1, Cerundolo 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Cerundolo
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 6, 2026
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 21, 2025
Erste Bank Open - Vienna
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 17, 2025
Terra Wortmann Open - Halle
G Grass · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Cerundolo | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Francisco Cerundolo | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 11% | 1/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–5 | 5–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | -11.2% | +9.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.91u | +0.85u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 3,258 mi · 5,243 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | MEX → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (63% vs Michelsen's 50%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Mannarino | W 64 76 | W 76 76 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 63 16 | L 64 36 46 |
| Alejandro Tabilo | W 36 63 64 | W 60 62 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 67 | L 57 16 |
| Ugo Humbert | W 75 67 76 | W 64 63 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 26 46 | W 60 46 75 |
| Mariano Navone | W 26 62 75 | W 63 64 |
| Zizou Bergs | L 36 62 26 | L 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Jesper de Jong
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Francisco Cerundolo
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jan-Lennard Struff
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Taylor Fritz
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Mackenzie McDonald
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Alex Michelsen
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Arthur Gea
Mifel Tennis Open - Los Cabos · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Jaume Munar
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tommy Paul
HSBC Championships - London · Final
Jun 21
Brandon Nakashima
HSBC Championships - London · Semifinals
Jun 20
Arthur Fery
HSBC Championships - London · Quarterfinals
Jun 19
Jenson Brooksby
HSBC Championships - London · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 54–59 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 61% |
| Sets won | 56% | 59% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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