Alex Michelsen vs Frances TiafoePrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex Michelsen and Frances Tiafoe have met 3 times since 2024; Frances Tiafoe leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Dallas Open - Dallas in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Tiafoe leads 2–0. Tiafoe has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Michelsen has taken 2 sets to Tiafoe's 7. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Michelsen | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex Michelsen | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 22/31 | 61% | 20/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 7/20 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 38% | 18/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 52% | 16/31 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 47% | 9/19 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 12/23 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 100% | 27/27 | 96% | 27/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 81% | 22/27 | 71% | 20/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Michelsen 0, Tiafoe 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Michelsen
💥 Big Hitter
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Alex Michelsen and Frances Tiafoe are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,000 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 8, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 4, 2025
US Men's Clay Court Championship - Houston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 8, 2024
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Michelsen | Tiafoe | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex Michelsen | Frances Tiafoe | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 100% | 18/18 |
| 3 or more | 84% | 16/19 | 89% | 16/18 |
| 5 or more | 58% | 11/19 | 56% | 10/18 |
| 10 or more | 21% | 4/19 | 17% | 3/18 |
| 15 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 0% | 0/18 |
| 20 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 0% | 0/18 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–7 | 13–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 2.04 |
| ROI % | -9.0% | +23.4% |
| Units P/L | -1.71u | +4.21u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Michelsen | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 4 |
| Distance | 6,691 mi · 10,768 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN → BEL | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Michelsen's 20%).
| Opponent | Michelsen | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fils | L 46 67 | L 36 57 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 46 46 | L 67 64 67 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 26 46 | W 76 64 76 |
| Valentin Vacherot | W 76 64 | W 64 62 64 |
| Brandon Nakashima | W 63 64 64 | W 75 63 |
| Learner Tien | L 46 63 16 | W 64 46 64 |
| Taylor Fritz | L 36 46 | W 64 64 |
| Arthur Rinderknech | L 36 36 | L |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 26 | L 46 67 |
| Alexei Popyrin | L 06 64 16 | W 36 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
European Open - Brussels · Quarterfinals
Oct 23
David Goffin
European Open - Brussels · 2nd Round
Oct 22
Andrea Guerrieri
European Open - Brussels · 1st Round
Oct 19
Botic van de Zandschulp
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Frances Tiafoe
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Tomas Martin Etcheverry
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Daniel Merida Aguilar
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 61–63 matches
| Metric | Michelsen | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 71% |
| Sets won | 61% | 63% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Michelsen | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Michelsen | Tiafoe |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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