Alex de Minaur vs Yunchaokete BuPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Yunchaokete Bu have met 3 times since 2025; Alex de Minaur leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Miami in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Bu's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Bu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Yunchaokete Bu | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 27% | 9/33 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 33% | 2/6 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 100% | 3/3 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 87% | 20/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 70% | 16/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Bu 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Bu
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Yunchaokete Bu.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 26, 2025
Beijing
H Hard · Round of 32
Jul 23, 2025
Washington
H Hard · Round of 32
Mar 22, 2025
ATP Masters 1000 Miami
H Hard · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Bu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Yunchaokete Bu | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 100% | 5/5 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 80% | 4/5 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 20% | 1/5 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/5 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/5 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 1–0 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.20 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +120.0% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +1.20u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 5 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Bu's 33%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | W 62 36 63 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | L 46 46 |
| Leandro Riedi | W 63 62 61 | L 63 36 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Hugo Dellien
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Clement Tabur
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Chris Rodesch
Lexus Ilkley Open · Round of 32
Jun 10
Otto Virtanen
Lexus Birmingham Open · Final
Jun 7
Arthur Fery
Lexus Birmingham Open · Semifinals
Jun 6
Mark Lajal
Lexus Birmingham Open · Quarterfinals
Jun 5
Billy Harris
Lexus Birmingham Open · Round of 16
Jun 4
Lloyd Harris
Lexus Birmingham Open · Round of 32
Jun 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 64% |
| Sets won | 62% | 61% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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