Alex de Minaur vs Yunchaokete BuPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Yunchaokete Bu have met 3 times since 2025; Alex de Minaur leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Miami Open - Miami in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 3–0. Minaur has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 6 sets to Bu's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Bu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Yunchaokete Bu | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 79% | 33/42 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 24% | 15/62 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 61% | 23/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 73% | 11/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 91% | 40/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 75% | 33/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 3, Bu 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Bu
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Yunchaokete Bu.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 26, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 23, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Bu | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Yunchaokete Bu | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 33% | 4/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.45 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | +46.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | +6.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (57% vs Bu's 29%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | L 16 67 |
| Novak Djokovic | L | L 64 67 26 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | L 26 67 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | W 63 63 | W 76 67 62 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | W 62 61 61 |
| Arthur Fery | W 75 76 | L 62 36 63 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | L 36 67 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Casper Ruud
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Luca Van Assche
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Kamil Majchrzak
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Michael Zheng
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Michael Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 34% |
| Sets won | 63% | 63% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Bu |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 3 | 0 |
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