Alex de Minaur vs Shintaro MochizukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Shintaro Mochizuki have met 1 time since 2025; Alex de Minaur leads 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 3 sets to Mochizuki's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 61% | 11/18 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 45% | 14/31 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 43% | 21/49 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 30% | 7/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 52% | 11/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Mochizuki
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 55% vs 🧱 The Wall across 753 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex de Minaur.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 28, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 88% | 15/17 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 53% | 9/17 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 29% | 5/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 12–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.70 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +17.4% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +3.47u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 5 | 2 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 145 mi · 233 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Mochizuki's 33%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 64 36 26 26 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 36 67 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | W 16 76 64 64 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | W 76 75 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 46 75 36 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 63 63 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 62 62 | L 16 63 46 |
| Jurij Rodionov | W 64 61 | L 46 57 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 36 | L 64 16 16 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Soon Woo Kwon
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Hayato Matsuoka
Vancouver Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Charles Broom
Vancouver Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 29
Liam Draxl
Winnipeg Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 25
Johannus Monday
Winnipeg Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Duncan Chan
Winnipeg Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Philip Sekulic
Winnipeg Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 22
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 55–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 40% |
| Sets won | 62% | 45% |
| Games won | 54% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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