Alex de Minaur vs Shintaro MochizukiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Shintaro Mochizuki have met 1 time since 2025; Alex de Minaur leads 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 3 sets to Mochizuki's 0. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at U.S. Open - New York (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 43% | 15/35 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 45% | 25/56 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 23% | 6/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 81% | 17/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 52% | 11/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Mochizuki
🧱 The Wall
Matchup analysis
The 🪃 Counterpuncher archetype wins about 55% vs 🧱 The Wall across 685 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alex de Minaur.
Counterpuncher players often use elite bp conversion and strong return game to pressure the the wall's elite returner.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 28, 2025
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Mochizuki | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Shintaro Mochizuki | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 84% | 16/19 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 42% | 8/19 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 21% | 4/19 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 10–11 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -23.6% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -4.96u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 4 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 3,937 mi · 6,336 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mochizuki's 30%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | L 46 57 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | L 16 46 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 16 46 57 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 64 36 63 | L 64 36 26 26 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 57 26 | L 36 67 36 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | W 16 76 64 64 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | W 76 75 |
| Benjamin Bonzi | W 62 64 | L 46 75 36 |
| Luciano Darderi | W 60 63 | W 63 63 |
| Karen Khachanov | W 62 62 | L 16 63 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Roman Safiullin
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Taro Daniel
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Jaime Faria
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Martin Damm
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Pavel Kotov
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Linang Xiao
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Pavel Kotov
Guangzhou Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 15
Jakub Mensik
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 40% |
| Sets won | 63% | 43% |
| Games won | 54% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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