Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Alicante in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Baena's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Alex de Minaur and Roberto Carballes Baena are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 2,818 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 1, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 16, 2024
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 11, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 6, 2018
Alicante
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -2.84u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | L 46 46 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | L 64 36 36 |
| Alexander Blockx | W 75 76 | L 67 63 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 55% |
| Sets won | 62% | 54% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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