Alex de Minaur vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2018; Alex de Minaur leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Alicante in 2018 on hard. On hard courts Minaur leads 2–0. Minaur has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 9 sets to Baena's 1. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at Wimbledon - London (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 43% | 20/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 44% | 12/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 2, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
Both Alex de Minaur and Roberto Carballes Baena are 🪃 Counterpuncher types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,190 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Jul 1, 2025
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 1st Round
Oct 16, 2024
European Open - Antwerp
H Hard · 2nd Round
May 11, 2024
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Apr 6, 2018
Alicante
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | — |
| Route | GBR → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Rei Sakamoto | W 76 64 | L 46 36 |
| Mackenzie McDonald | W 62 62 63 | L 46 46 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | L 64 36 36 |
| Alexander Blockx | W 75 76 | L 67 63 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 52% |
| Sets won | 63% | 52% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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