Alex de Minaur and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2019; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at US Open (2022).
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🎯 Baseliner
Busta
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 2,807 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
2 career meetings, newest first
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 85% | 17/20 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 8/20 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 5 or more | 20% | 4/20 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/10 |
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 12–8 | 4–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.45 | 2.13 |
| ROI % | -12.4% | +21.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | +1.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 70%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 62 64 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | W 63 63 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 64 64 16 26 26 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 67 64 | W 63 76 63 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 36 36 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 62 | W 64 63 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | W 36 63 64 |
| Roberto Carballes Baena | W 62 62 76 | W 64 63 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | W 63 62 |
Last five matches per player
Denis Shapovalov
HSBC Championships · Round of 16
Jun 17
Brandon Nakashima
HSBC Championships · Quarterfinals
Jun 15
Kamil Majchrzak
Libema Open · Final
Jun 13
Adrian Mannarino
Libema Open · Semifinals
Jun 13
Benjamin Bonzi
Libema Open · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Martin Damm
Libema Open · Round of 16
Jun 11
Gabriel Diallo
HSBC Championships · Round of 32
Jun 9
Jakub Mensik
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Rafael Jodar
Roland Garros · Round of 16
May 31
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Roland Garros · Round of 32
May 29
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Roland Garros · Round of 64
May 27
Jiri Lehecka
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 26
Sebastian Baez
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 16
May 14
Francisco Comesana
Copa Faulconbridge · Round of 32
May 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · Round of 128
May 6
Martin Damm
Internazionali BNL d'Italia · 1st Round Qualifying
May 4
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 57–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 67% |
| Sets won | 65% | 60% |
| Games won | 55% | 53% |
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
