Alex de Minaur vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2019; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2019 on clay. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 1 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 25/37 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 42% | 8/19 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 23/48 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 4/8 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 73% | 19/26 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 30/34 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 25/34 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 1,152 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 2, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 29, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–5 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.58 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | +8.6% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | +1.64u | -1.18u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 6 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Busta's 50%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | W 63 62 | L 36 64 16 |
| Mariano Navone | W 76 62 | W 46 75 63 |
| Andrey Rublev | W 16 62 63 | L 67 16 |
| Quentin Halys | W 36 76 75 | L 64 57 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 63 62 62 | W 63 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 46 57 26 | W 63 62 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 63 76 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | W 63 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rei Sakamoto
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Final
Oct 6
Hubert Hurkacz
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Quentin Halys
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Mariano Navone
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Alexander Zverev
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Kamil Majchrzak
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, AUS-POL 3-1 · Rubber 4
Sep 20
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–69 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 67% | 62% |
| Sets won | 63% | 58% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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