Head-to-Head

Alex de Minaur vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇦🇺Alex de Minaur

#7 · 27 yrs · R

0–2

2 meetings · sets 1–6

🇪🇸Pablo Carreno Busta

#66 · 35 yrs · R

Alex de Minaur and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2019; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2019 on clay. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 1 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	de Minaur	Carreno Busta
Indicator	Alex de Minaur		Pablo Carreno Busta
Wins in straight sets	74%	28/38	57%	23/40
Wins a set when losing	43%	10/23	50%	10/20
Goes to a deciding set	33%	20/61	45%	27/60
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	47%	24/51	47%	18/38
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	56%	5/9	57%	12/21
Tiebreak sets won	70%	16/23	63%	10/16
Wins after taking set 1	89%	34/38	89%	31/35
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	74%	28/38	66%	23/35

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Minaur

🪃 Counterpuncher

Elite BP conversionStrong return gameDefensive consistencyRally tolerance

Busta

🏹 Frontrunner

Fast startsAggressive openersMomentum-drivenStrong holds

Matchup analysis

The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 657 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.

Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.

Previous meetings

2 career meetings, newest first

Sep 2, 2022

U.S. Open - New York

H Hard · 3rd Round

6⁵7

Busta

May 29, 2019

Roland Garros

C Clay · Round of 64

Busta

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Minaur	Busta
Outcome	Alex de Minaur		Pablo Carreno Busta
1 or more	94%	17/18	88%	7/8
3 or more	78%	14/18	63%	5/8
5 or more	50%	9/18	25%	2/8
10 or more	0%	0/18	0%	0/8
15 or more	0%	0/18	0%	0/8
20 or more	0%	0/18	0%	0/8

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Minaur	Busta
W-L	13–6	4–5
Avg odds	1.33	2.29
ROI %	-16.4%	+0.8%
Units P/L	-3.11u	+0.07u

Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Minaur	Busta
Countries	2	2
Events	2	2
Matches	5	3
Distance	712 mi · 1,146 km	712 mi · 1,146 km
Route	CAN → USA	CAN → USA

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 40%).

Opponent	Minaur	Busta
Quentin Halys	W 16 63 76	L 64 57 36
Camilo Ugo Carabelli	W 64 62	L 63 57 57
Rafael Jodar	L 36 16	L 63 36 61 36 46
Denis Shapovalov	W 64 61	W 63 76
Martin Damm	W 76 75	W 63 63
Jakub Mensik	L 60 26 26 36	L 57 64 62 67 36
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	W 62 46 64	L 36 36
Sebastian Ofner	W 76 64	W 36 63 64
Botic van de Zandschulp	W 36 76 75	W 63 62
Matteo Berrettini	W 61 76	L 36 46

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Minaur

LWWLWLWW

Arthur Fils

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

Aug 19

Arthur Fery

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

76³

Aug 17

Quentin Halys

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

76⁴

Aug 15

Cameron Norrie

National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round

6⁵7

Aug 6

James Duckworth

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

76⁶

Aug 5

Brandon Nakashima

Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Jul 31

Cruz Hewitt

Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round

Jul 30

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round

Jul 29

Busta

LWLLWLWL

Andrey Rublev

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

6⁵7

Aug 16

Tomas Machac

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round

Aug 14

Valentin Royer

National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round

Aug 4

Luca Van Assche

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round

Jul 23

Vilius Gaubas

Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round

Jul 21

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round

Jul 15

Matej Dodig

Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round

Jul 14

Rafael Jodar

Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round

Jul 2

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ MinaurBusta ahead↓ Busta

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–74 matches

Metric	Minaur	Busta
Matches won	64%	65%
Sets won	62%	60%
Games won	54%	53%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Minaur	Busta
Grand Slam	0	2

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Minaur	Busta
Hard	0	1
Clay	0	1

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Alex de Minaur vs Pablo Carreno Busta FAQ

Pablo Carreno Busta leads the head-to-head 2–0 over 2 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Minaur rivalries

More Busta rivalries

Alex de Minaur vs Pablo Carreno Busta FAQ

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