Alex de Minaur vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 2 times since 2019; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2019 on clay. Busta has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 1 sets to Busta's 6. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at U.S. Open - New York (2022).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🏹 Frontrunner archetype wins about 54% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 657 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Pablo Carreno Busta.
Frontrunner players often use fast starts and aggressive openers to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 2, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
May 29, 2019
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 64
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Minaur has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Busta's 40%).
| Opponent | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | W 16 63 76 | L 64 57 36 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 64 62 | L 63 57 57 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 36 16 | L 63 36 61 36 46 |
| Denis Shapovalov | W 64 61 | W 63 76 |
| Martin Damm | W 76 75 | W 63 63 |
| Jakub Mensik | L 60 26 26 36 | L 57 64 62 67 36 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 62 46 64 | L 36 36 |
| Sebastian Ofner | W 76 64 | W 36 63 64 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | W 36 76 75 | W 63 62 |
| Matteo Berrettini | W 61 76 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 65% |
| Sets won | 62% | 60% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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