Alex de Minaur vs Daniel EvansPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alex de Minaur and Daniel Evans have met 5 times since 2018; Daniel Evans leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Nottingham in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Evans leads 3–1. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Minaur leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Minaur has taken 7 sets to Evans's 7. Their most recent meeting: Alex de Minaur won at U.S. Open - New York (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | de Minaur | Evans | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alex de Minaur | Daniel Evans | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 28/38 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Wins a set when losing | 43% | 10/23 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 20/61 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 24/51 | 67% | 2/3 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 5/9 | 67% | 4/6 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 70% | 16/23 | 67% | 2/3 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 34/38 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 28/38 | 80% | 4/5 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (de Minaur 1, Evans 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Minaur
🪃 Counterpuncher
Evans
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
The 🎾 All-Court archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Daniel Evans.
All-Court players often use tactical versatility and net approach ability to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Aug 31, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Sep 13, 2023
Davis Cup, Group B, Manchester
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jan 9, 2020
ATP Cup - Brisbane, Perth, Sydney
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Aug 6, 2019
ATP Masters 1000 Canada
H Hard · Round of 64
Jun 17, 2018
Nottingham
G Grass · Final
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Minaur | Evans | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alex de Minaur | Daniel Evans | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 3/3 |
| 3 or more | 78% | 14/18 | 67% | 2/3 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 9/18 | 67% | 2/3 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 33% | 1/3 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/3 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/3 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Minaur | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–6 | 1–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.33 | 2.55 |
| ROI % | -16.4% | -47.5% |
| Units P/L | -3.11u | -1.90u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Minaur | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | — |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Arthur Fery
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Quentin Halys
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Cameron Norrie
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 6
James Duckworth
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Brandon Nakashima
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Cruz Hewitt
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 29
Juan Carlos Prado Angelo
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Tristan Schoolkate
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 24
Marcos Giron
HSBC Championships · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 13
Charles Broom
Lexus Ilkley Open · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 8
James Watt
Lexus Ilkley Open · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 7
Bruno Kuzuhara
UAMS Health Little Rock Open · 1st Round Qualifying
May 24
Daniel Jade
Roland Garros · 1st Round Qualifying
May 18
Oliver Crawford
Guangzhou Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 10–74 matches
| Metric | Minaur | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 64% | 50% |
| Sets won | 62% | 52% |
| Games won | 54% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Minaur | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Minaur | Evans |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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