Alejandro Tabilo vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Alejandro Tabilo and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2021; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Antalya 1 in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Musetti leads 2–0. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Tabilo leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Tabilo has taken 2 sets to Musetti's 5. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Tabilo won at Chengdu Open - Chengdu (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tabilo | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Tabilo | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 26/49 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 41% | 11/27 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 34/76 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 22/46 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 17/27 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 15/32 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 82% | 37/45 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 58% | 26/45 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tabilo 0, Musetti 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tabilo
💥 Big Hitter
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎯 Baseliner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 1,047 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Sep 23, 2025
Chengdu Open - Chengdu
H Hard · Final
Jan 28, 2021
Antalya Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Jan 13, 2021
Antalya 1
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tabilo | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Tabilo | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 69% | 9/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–8 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 2.25 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | -16.2% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | -2.11u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tabilo | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | USA → CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Tabilo's 30%).
| Opponent | Tabilo | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Jodar | L 26 16 | L 46 36 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | L 46 67 | W 64 76 |
| Tallon Griekspoor | W 76 46 64 | W 64 75 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 64 46 | W 67 75 64 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | L 36 57 16 | L 46 26 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 06 26 | W 76 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 63 67 46 | L 36 36 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 64 63 | L 57 16 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 62 | W 64 60 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | L 63 67 46 | W 67 62 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Rafael Jodar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Jan-Lennard Struff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Hubert Hurkacz
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 2
Ben Shelton
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 31
Tallon Griekspoor
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–81 matches
| Metric | Tabilo | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 65% |
| Sets won | 57% | 61% |
| Games won | 53% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tabilo | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tabilo | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 0 | 2 |
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