Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#26 · 27 yrs · R
Title3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇮🇹Matteo Arnaldi
#38 · 25 yrs · R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2025; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Dallas Open - Dallas in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Fokina leads 2–1. Fokina has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 7/16 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 20/32 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 12/21 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 2, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 1,249 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 4, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 15, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 6, 2025
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 3.31 |
| ROI % | +40.2% | -27.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.82u | -2.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 4 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Fokina and Arnaldi posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 46 76 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Matteo Berrettini | L 61 67 46 | W |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | W 64 64 |
| Alexandre Muller | W 61 75 | L 16 76 46 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 64 64 | W 62 63 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 63 60 63 | W 75 26 64 |
| Alex Molcan | L 63 16 26 | L 36 16 |
| Damir Dzumhur | W 67 63 26 75 63 | L 67 76 67 |
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 67 16 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Jenson Brooksby
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Matteo Berrettini
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Alexandre Muller
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–52 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 52% |
| Sets won | 63% | 50% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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