Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#27 · 27 yrs · R
6w3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇮🇹Matteo Arnaldi
#34 · 25 yrs · R
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Matteo Arnaldi have met 3 times since 2025; Alejandro Davidovich Fokina leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Dallas Open - Dallas in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Fokina leads 2–1. Fokina has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 4 sets to Arnaldi's 2. Their most recent meeting: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina won at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 79% | 19/24 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Wins a set when losing | 35% | 6/17 | 58% | 11/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 27% | 11/41 | 58% | 21/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 66% | 19/29 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 42% | 5/12 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 20/23 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 83% | 19/23 | 47% | 7/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 2, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 56% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 460 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 4, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 15, 2025
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach
H Hard · Semifinals
Feb 6, 2025
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 87% | 13/15 | 100% | 11/11 |
| 3 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 5 or more | 80% | 12/15 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 10 or more | 7% | 1/15 | 27% | 3/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 9% | 1/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–4 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 1.87 |
| ROI % | +2.7% | -33.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.38u | -2.66u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 3 |
| Distance | — | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | — | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fokina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Arnaldi's 40%).
| Opponent | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Fabian Marozsan | W 63 60 63 | W 75 26 64 |
| Alex Molcan | L 63 16 26 | L 36 16 |
| Damir Dzumhur | W 67 63 26 75 63 | L 67 76 67 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 76 62 63 | L 57 26 |
| Quentin Halys | L 67 46 | L 63 16 67 36 |
| Juan Manuel Cerundolo | W 64 64 76 | W 62 63 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 67 16 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 64 46 | W 46 76 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 46 | L 46 26 36 |
| Cristian Garin | W 76 64 | L 26 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Marco Trungelliti
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Marton Fucsovics
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Fabian Marozsan
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Ethan Quinn
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Final
Jun 27
Fabian Marozsan
Mallorca Championships - Mallorca · Semifinals
Jun 26
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–49 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 50% |
| Sets won | 60% | 49% |
| Games won | 52% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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