Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Denis ShapovalovPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇪🇸Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
#26 · 27 yrs · R
Title3 meetings · sets 4–4
🇨🇦Denis Shapovalov
#42 · 27 yrs · L
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina and Denis Shapovalov have met 3 times since 2022; Denis Shapovalov leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Shapovalov leads 2–1. Across all meetings Fokina has taken 4 sets to Shapovalov's 4. Their most recent meeting: Denis Shapovalov won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Davidovich Fokina | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 21/28 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 7/16 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 46% | 18/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 63% | 20/32 | 35% | 9/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 57% | 12/21 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 85% | 23/27 | 82% | 18/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 21/27 | 45% | 10/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Davidovich Fokina 1, Shapovalov 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fokina
🎯 Baseliner
Shapovalov
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🎯 Baseliner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 1,249 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Feb 13, 2026
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Feb 28, 2025
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · Semifinals
Mar 12, 2022
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fokina | Shapovalov | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | Denis Shapovalov | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 82% | 14/17 |
| 5 or more | 71% | 5/7 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fokina | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–1 | 12–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.63 | 2.15 |
| ROI % | +40.2% | +12.3% |
| Units P/L | +2.82u | +2.09u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fokina | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 7 |
| Distance | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km | 2,080 mi · 3,347 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Fokina has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Shapovalov's 30%).
| Opponent | Fokina | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 76 | L 76 36 36 |
| Zachary Svajda | W 76 62 | L |
| Cameron Norrie | W 76 62 | W 63 57 64 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 63 62 | W 26 63 62 |
| Alex Molcan | L 63 16 26 | L 46 46 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 63 60 63 | W 76 62 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 63 63 | L 36 67 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 26 64 46 | L 46 16 |
| Casper Ruud | L 36 16 | L 36 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 67 16 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Jenson Brooksby
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Matteo Berrettini
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Final
Sep 29
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Alexandre Muller
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Alex Molcan
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Sho Shimabukuro
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Hubert Hurkacz
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Semifinals
Sep 28
Adrian Mannarino
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Vit Kopriva
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Tallon Griekspoor
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–52 matches
| Metric | Fokina | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 56% |
| Sets won | 63% | 52% |
| Games won | 53% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fokina | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fokina | Shapovalov |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
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