Ajla Tomljanovic vs Aryna SabalenkaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Ajla Tomljanovic
#103 · 33 yrs · Right-Handed
9w35 meetings · sets 5–8
🇧🇾Aryna Sabalenka
#1 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Ajla Tomljanovic and Aryna Sabalenka have met 5 times since 2018; Aryna Sabalenka leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at s-Hertogenbosch in 2018 on grass. On hard courts Sabalenka leads 3–1. Sabalenka has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Tomljanovic has taken 5 sets to Sabalenka's 8. Their most recent meeting: Aryna Sabalenka won at Kremlin Cup - Moscow (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ajla Tomljanovic | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 14/19 | 84% | 42/50 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 70% | 7/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 15/37 | 25% | 15/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 10/19 | 69% | 41/59 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 12/15 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 4/8 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 92% | 45/49 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 86% | 42/49 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tomljanovic 1, Sabalenka 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tomljanovic
💥 Big Hitter
Sabalenka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Ajla Tomljanovic and Aryna Sabalenka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Oct 20, 2021
Kremlin Cup - Moscow
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 8, 2021
Abu Dhabi
H Hard · Round of 32
Mar 20, 2019
Miami
H Hard · Round of 64
Mar 6, 2019
Indian Wells
H Hard · Round of 64
Jun 14, 2018
s-Hertogenbosch
G Grass · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ajla Tomljanovic | Aryna Sabalenka | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 3 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 20% | 3/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–3 | 11–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 1.16 |
| ROI % | +22.2% | -23.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.00u | -3.75u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | — | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Sabalenka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Tomljanovic's 40%).
| Opponent | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | L 06 36 | L 46 76 06 |
| Caty Mcnally | W 64 64 | W 64 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 63 61 | W 64 62 |
| Elsa Jacquemot | W 61 63 | W 75 62 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 64 46 36 | L 62 36 57 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 26 06 | W 64 63 |
| Amanda Anisimova | L 16 75 46 | W 63 36 63 |
| Jasmine Paolini | L 57 75 16 | W 63 61 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 64 64 | W 63 60 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 64 16 67 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mariam Bolkvadze
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Tereza Valentova
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Veronika Erjavec
Eastbourne
Jun 21
Camila Osorio
Eastbourne
Jun 20
Caty Mcnally
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Robin Montgomery
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · Semifinals
Jun 13
Dayana Yastremska
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch · 2nd Round
Jun 12
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Xinyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Talia Gibson
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ekaterina Alexandrova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 9
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Moyuka Uchijima
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Jelena Ostapenko
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 37–60 matches
| Metric | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 83% |
| Sets won | 54% | 79% |
| Games won | 51% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 3 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tomljanovic | Sabalenka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 3 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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