Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

π¦πΊAjla Tomljanovic
#103 Β· 33 yrs Β· Right-Handed
9w34 meetings Β· sets 1β8

πΊπΈJessica Pegula
#3 Β· 32 yrs Β· Right-Handed
Ajla Tomljanovic and Jessica Pegula have met 4 times since 2024; Jessica Pegula leads 4β0. Their first meeting came at United Cup - Australia in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 3β0. Pegula has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Tomljanovic has taken 1 sets to Pegula's 8. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at China Open - Beijing (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches Β· Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tomljanovic | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Ajla Tomljanovic | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 14/19 | 54% | 31/57 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 15/37 | 46% | 35/76 |
| Covers β1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 10/19 | 50% | 30/60 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 12/15 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 4/8 | 63% | 12/19 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 88% | 42/48 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 74% | 14/19 | 65% | 31/48 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tomljanovic 0, Pegula 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tomljanovic
π₯ Big Hitter
Pegula
π₯ Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Ajla Tomljanovic and Jessica Pegula are π₯ Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Sep 27, 2025
China Open - Beijing
H Hard Β· 2nd Round
Apr 3, 2025
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay Β· 3rd Round
Mar 1, 2025
ATX Open - Austin
H Hard Β· Semifinals
Jan 1, 2024
United Cup - Australia
H Hard Β· Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets Β· Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tomljanovic | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Ajla Tomljanovic | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 95% | 20/21 |
| 3 or more | 14% | 1/7 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 33% | 7/21 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 5% | 1/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches Β· Last 90 days
| Metric | Tomljanovic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6β3 | 17β5 |
| Avg odds | 1.75 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | +22.2% | +10.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.00u | +2.29u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tomljanovic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | β | 3 |
| Events | β | 3 |
| Matches | β | 12 |
| Distance | β | 761 mi Β· 1,225 km |
| Route | β | AUT β CAN β POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced Β· Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Tomljanovic's 60%).
| Opponent | Tomljanovic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | L 16 75 46 | W 64 26 76 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 64 46 36 | W 62 46 75 |
| Simona Waltert | W 63 64 | W 63 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 64 64 | W 46 63 61 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 63 61 | W 61 63 |
| Sara Sorribes Tormo | L 46 62 36 | W 76 61 |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | W 62 67 75 | W 16 61 76 |
| Dayana Yastremska | W 46 64 75 | W 57 62 63 |
| Kimberly Birrell | L 36 36 | L 61 36 36 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 76 63 | W 64 60 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Mariam Bolkvadze
Wimbledon - London Β· 1st Round
Jun 30
Tereza Valentova
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne Β· 2nd Round
Jun 24
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne Β· 1st Round
Jun 22
Veronika Erjavec
Eastbourne
Jun 21
Camila Osorio
Eastbourne
Jun 20
Caty Mcnally
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch Β· Quarterfinals
Jun 13
Robin Montgomery
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch Β· Semifinals
Jun 13
Dayana Yastremska
Libema Open - 's-Hertogenbosch Β· 2nd Round
Jun 12
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati Β· 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto Β· 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto Β· 3rd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won Β· Last 12 months Β· 37β76 matches
| Metric | Tomljanovic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 75% |
| Sets won | 54% | 66% |
| Games won | 51% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tomljanovic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tomljanovic | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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