Tommy Paul vs Valentin VacherotPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 3rd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 7:30 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.60 or shorter, Tommy Paul has won 109 of 151 (72%). The price implied 66%, so Tommy Paul has beaten it by 6 points.
At 2.34 or longer, Valentin Vacherot has won 17 of 37 (46%). The price implied 34%, so Valentin Vacherot has beaten it by 12 points.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Tommy Paul meets Valentin Vacherot in the 3rd Round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 11 on hard court. Paul, ranked 18th, will face the 14th-ranked Vacherot in their first career meeting. Both players arrive off straight-set victories, with Paul dispatching his opponent in two sets on October 10.
Vacherot has found rhythm over the past fortnight, winning four of his last five matches. Tommy Paul has won seven of his last ten but dropped two of his previous five. The two have split results against common foes; Paul defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Frances Tiafoe, and Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, while Vacherot beat Arthur Fils and Kamil Majchrzak. Neither man has faced the other before.
Paul relies on power from the baseline and is comfortable dictating points from the back court. Vacherot builds his game around serve and volley, using a big first delivery to create openings and finish at net. On hard courts, Paul has compiled a 12-8 record; Vacherot sits at the same 12-8 mark. The match will turn on whether Vacherot's service game can control rhythm or if Paul can break it down and assert his groundstroke pressure.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Paul | Vacherot | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Tommy Paul | Valentin Vacherot | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 57% | 8/14 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 21/44 | 44% | 17/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 15/39 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 100% | 4/4 | 70% | 14/20 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 13/21 | 61% | 14/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 22/28 | 76% | 16/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 17/28 | 62% | 13/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record.
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Vacherot
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
First career meeting
Paul and Vacherot have never faced each other on tour.
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Paul | Vacherot | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Tommy Paul | Valentin Vacherot | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 12/12 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 2/12 | 54% | 7/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Paul | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 8–5 | 8–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.81 | 2.11 |
| ROI % | +1.3% | +7.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.17u | +1.11u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Paul | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Vacherot's 60%).
| Opponent | Paul | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | W 62 62 | L 36 36 |
| Arthur Fils | L 76 67 67 | W 75 46 64 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 46 36 46 | L 46 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 75 46 76 | L 46 26 46 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 64 36 67 61 63 | W 76 76 |
| Kamil Majchrzak | L 57 67 | W 64 46 76 62 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 63 63 | W 62 63 75 |
| Chak Pong Marco Lam | W 67 61 63 63 | W 46 63 62 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | W 64 67 63 | W 67 63 64 |
| Raphael Collignon | W 62 36 76 | L 67 64 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sebastian Baez
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Alexander Blockx
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Lloyd Harris
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Otto Virtanen
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, FIN-MON 1-3 · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Eero Vasa
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, FIN-MON 1-3 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Matchup videos
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–58 matches
| Metric | Paul | Vacherot |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 69% | 61% |
| Sets won | 64% | 57% |
| Games won | 54% | 52% |