Taro Daniel vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Taro Daniel and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2017; Tommy Paul leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 2–1. Paul has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Daniel has taken 4 sets to Paul's 8. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Daniel | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Taro Daniel | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 25/35 | 55% | 16/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 8/21 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 18/56 | 49% | 20/41 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 10/17 | 39% | 14/36 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 74% | 25/34 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 42% | 8/19 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 29/33 | 81% | 21/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 25/33 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Daniel 0, Paul 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Daniel
🏹 Frontrunner
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 7, 2024
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 17, 2023
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 6, 2022
Adelaide International 1 - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 29, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Daniel | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Taro Daniel | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 44% | 8/18 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 28% | 5/18 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.18 | 1.54 |
| ROI % | +67.7% | +12.2% |
| Units P/L | +12.19u | +1.71u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Daniel's 25%).
| Opponent | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Royer | L 64 26 26 | W 64 76 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 67 46 | W 76 63 |
| Zsombor Piros | W 63 63 | W 76 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 76 26 | W 46 63 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Stefanos Sakellaridis
Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jan Choinski
Quebec City Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 20
Duncan Chan
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 19
Botic van de Zandschulp
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Bastad
Jul 13
Federico Coria
Bastad
Jul 12
Valentin Royer
Iasi Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Hubert Hurkacz
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Learner Tien
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Kamil Majchrzak
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hubert Hurkacz
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Soonwoo Kwon
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–56 matches
| Metric | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 63% | 70% |
| Sets won | 60% | 65% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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