Taro Daniel vs Tommy PaulPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Taro Daniel and Tommy Paul have met 4 times since 2017; Tommy Paul leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at US Open in 2017 on hard. On hard courts Paul leads 2–1. Paul has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Daniel has taken 4 sets to Paul's 8. Their most recent meeting: Tommy Paul won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Daniel | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Taro Daniel | Tommy Paul | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 73% | 29/40 | 57% | 17/30 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 8/21 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 19/61 | 48% | 21/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 60% | 15/25 | 38% | 15/39 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 77% | 23/30 | 100% | 4/4 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 53% | 10/19 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 35/42 | 79% | 22/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 69% | 29/42 | 61% | 17/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Daniel 0, Paul 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Daniel
🪃 Counterpuncher
Paul
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Feb 7, 2024
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jun 17, 2023
London / Queen's Club
G Grass · 1st Round Qualifying
Jan 6, 2022
Adelaide International 1 - Adelaide
H Hard · 2nd Round
Aug 29, 2017
US Open
H Hard · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Daniel | Paul | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Taro Daniel | Tommy Paul | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 13/13 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 85% | 11/13 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 5 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 8–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.73 | 1.81 |
| ROI % | +5.1% | +1.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.82u | +0.17u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 2,283 mi · 3,674 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Paul has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Daniel's 20%).
| Opponent | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 36 26 | W 62 62 |
| Valentin Royer | L 64 26 26 | W 64 76 |
| Botic van de Zandschulp | L 67 46 | W 76 63 |
| Zsombor Piros | W 63 63 | W 76 63 |
| Rinky Hijikata | L 36 76 26 | W 46 63 75 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Fabian Marozsan
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Dane Sweeny
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Hayato Matsuoka
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 23
Jake Delaney
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 22
Marat Sharipov
Shanghai Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 9
Matthew Dellavedova
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Alejandro Tabilo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Carlos Alcaraz
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Alexander Bublik
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Dino Prizmic
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Chak Pong Marco Lam
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Flavio Cobolli
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Alexander Zverev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–61 matches
| Metric | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 69% |
| Sets won | 62% | 64% |
| Games won | 54% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Daniel | Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 2 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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