Pablo Carreno Busta vs Sebastian KordaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Sebastian Korda have met 3 times since 2022; Pablo Carreno Busta leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Busta leads 2–0. Busta has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Busta has taken 7 sets to Korda's 2. Their most recent meeting: Pablo Carreno Busta won at Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Korda | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Sebastian Korda | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | 64% | 16/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 62% | 8/13 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | 45% | 17/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | 48% | 15/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 100% | 7/7 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 60% | 9/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | 77% | 20/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | 62% | 16/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 1, Korda 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Korda
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 14, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 1st Round
Jun 15, 2022
Noventi Open - Halle
G Grass · 2nd Round
Jan 21, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | - |
| ROI % | +0.8% | - |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Korda has a higher win rate against shared opponents (71% vs Busta's 57%).
| Opponent | Busta | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Valentin Royer | L 61 57 26 | W 62 57 64 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 63 57 57 | W 60 63 |
| Thanasi Kokkinakis | W 75 46 10 | L 63 36 67 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 64 63 | W 75 60 |
| Martin Landaluce | W 62 36 63 | L 62 67 46 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 46 63 76 | W 63 62 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 36 61 46 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Martin Landaluce
Miami Open - Miami · 4th Round
Mar 24
Carlos Alcaraz
Miami Open - Miami · 3rd Round
Mar 22
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Miami Open - Miami · 2nd Round
Mar 20
Alex de Minaur
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 2nd Round
Mar 7
Francisco Comesana
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells · 1st Round
Mar 5
Tommy Paul
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Final
Feb 22
Flavio Cobolli
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Semifinals
Feb 21
Casper Ruud
Delray Beach Open - Delray Beach · Quarterfinals
Feb 20
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–65 matches
| Metric | Busta | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | 64% |
| Sets won | 60% | 61% |
| Games won | 53% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Korda |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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