Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Rafael Nadal have met 9 times since 2015; Rafael Nadal leads 9–0. Their first meeting came at Rio de Janeiro in 2015 on clay. On clay courts Nadal leads 6–0. On hard courts Nadal leads 3–0. Nadal has won the last 9 meetings. Across all meetings Busta has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 19. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 53% | 18/34 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 44% | 8/18 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 24/52 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 14/29 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 59% | 13/22 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 67% | 10/15 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 18/27 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 6 of 8 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 0, Nadal 6).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Nadal
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 411 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
9 career meetings, newest first
Apr 24, 2021
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 6, 2020
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 16, 2020
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jan 25, 2020
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jun 6, 2017
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 9, 2016
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Round of 32
Jan 6, 2016
Doha
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 12, 2015
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.47 | - |
| ROI % | -9.8% | - |
| Units P/L | -1.18u | - |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 6 | — |
| Distance | 663 mi · 1,067 km | — |
| Route | CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Botic van de Zandschulp
Davis Cup, World Group, QF, NED-ESP 2-1 · Rubber 1
Nov 19
Novak Djokovic
Olympics - Paris · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Marton Fucsovics
Olympics - Paris · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nuno Borges
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Nordea Open - Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Nordea Open - Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Nordea Open - Bastad · 2nd Round
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 58–58 matches
| Metric | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | - |
| Sets won | 58% | - |
| Games won | 52% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 4 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 6 |
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