Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael NadalPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Pablo Carreno Busta and Rafael Nadal have met 8 times since 2015; Rafael Nadal leads 8–0. Their first meeting came at Rio de Janeiro in 2015 on clay. On clay courts Nadal leads 5–0. On hard courts Nadal leads 3–0. Nadal has won the last 8 meetings. Across all meetings Busta has taken 2 sets to Nadal's 17. Their most recent meeting: Rafael Nadal won at Barcelona (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Carreno Busta | Nadal | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Pablo Carreno Busta | Rafael Nadal | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 23/40 | — | |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | — | |
| Goes to a deciding set | 45% | 27/60 | — | |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 18/38 | — | |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | — | |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | — | |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 31/35 | — | |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 66% | 23/35 | — | |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Small sample — read with care. Head-to-head: 5 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Carreno Busta 0, Nadal 5).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Nadal
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🏹 Frontrunner vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 554 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
8 career meetings, newest first
Apr 19, 2021
Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Nov 6, 2020
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 16, 2020
ATP Masters 1000 Rome
C Clay · Round of 32
Jan 25, 2020
Australian Open
H Hard · Round of 32
Jun 6, 2017
Roland Garros
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Feb 9, 2016
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Round of 32
Jan 6, 2016
Doha
H Hard · Round of 32
Feb 12, 2015
Rio de Janeiro
C Clay · Round of 16
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | - |
| Avg odds | 2.29 | - |
| ROI % | +0.8% | - |
| Units P/L | +0.07u | - |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Nuno Borges
Bastad · Final
Jul 21
Duje Ajdukovic
Bastad · Semifinals
Jul 20
Mariano Navone
Bastad · Quarterfinals
Jul 19
Cameron Norrie
Bastad · Round of 16
Jul 18
Leo Borg
Bastad · Round of 32
Jul 16
Alexander Zverev
Roland Garros · Round of 128
May 28
Hubert Hurkacz
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 64
May 11
Zizou Bergs
ATP Masters 1000 Rome · Round of 128
May 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 65–65 matches
| Metric | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 65% | - |
| Sets won | 60% | - |
| Games won | 53% | - |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| ATP 500 | 0 | 3 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Busta | Nadal |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 5 |
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