Naomi Osaka vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
1 meeting · sets 1–2
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#58 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa have met 1 time since 2025; Paula Badosa leads 1–0. Across all meetings Osaka has taken 1 sets to Badosa's 2. Their most recent meeting: Paula Badosa won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Osaka | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Naomi Osaka | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 22/33 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 27% | 3/11 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 32% | 14/44 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 18/33 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 71% | 10/14 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 32/34 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 22/34 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Osaka 0, Badosa 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Naomi Osaka and Paula Badosa are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
May 26, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Osaka | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Naomi Osaka | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 12/13 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 62% | 8/13 |
| 5 or more | 69% | 9/13 | 15% | 2/13 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Osaka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.46 | 1.77 |
| ROI % | -14.3% | -4.9% |
| Units P/L | -1.86u | -0.64u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Osaka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | ROU | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (78% vs Badosa's 67%).
| Opponent | Osaka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Daria Kasatkina | W 61 63 | W 46 76 64 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 16 46 | L 36 26 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 62 57 61 | W 63 75 |
| Panna Udvardy | W 62 64 | W 64 61 |
| Anhelina Kalinina | W 61 63 | W 63 61 |
| Suzan Lamens | W 76 36 62 | W 63 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 76 67 64 | L 26 16 |
| Eva Lys | W 64 46 63 | L 62 57 46 |
| Maria Sakkari | L 46 26 | W 63 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–45 matches
| Metric | Osaka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 60% |
| Sets won | 68% | 59% |
| Games won | 56% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Osaka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Osaka | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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