Matteo Berrettini vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Matteo Berrettini
#43 · 30 yrs · R
4 meetings · sets 7–2
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#209 · 33 yrs · R
5wMatteo Berrettini and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2019; Matteo Berrettini leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at St. Petersburg in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–1. Berrettini has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Berrettini leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Berrettini has taken 7 sets to Baena's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Berrettini | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Berrettini | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 15/20 | 58% | 15/26 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 6/20 | 43% | 9/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 11/40 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 45% | 13/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Berrettini 3, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 7, 2024
Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech
C Clay · Final
Oct 20, 2022
Tennis Napoli Open - Naples
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2022
Firenze Open - Florence
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 12, 2019
St. Petersburg
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Berrettini | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Berrettini | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 85% | 11/13 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 10 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 15 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–3 | 8–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.85 | 1.74 |
| ROI % | +2.9% | -20.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.20u | -2.84u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | — |
| Route | CAN → USA | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Berrettini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 63 64 | L 46 36 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 46 36 | L 16 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Arthur Fils
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Stan Wawrinka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mackenzie McDonald
Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying
Jun 29
Mark Ceban
Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying
Jun 22
Sebastian Ofner
Parma Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jun 18
Stefano Travaglia
Parma Challenger · 2nd Round
Jun 17
Miguel Damas
Parma Challenger · 1st Round
Jun 16
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–48 matches
| Metric | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 55% |
| Sets won | 56% | 54% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 2 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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