Matteo Berrettini vs Roberto Carballes BaenaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇮🇹Matteo Berrettini
#46 · 30 yrs · R
4 meetings · sets 7–2
🇪🇸Roberto Carballes Baena
#258 · 33 yrs · R
5wMatteo Berrettini and Roberto Carballes Baena have met 4 times since 2019; Matteo Berrettini leads 3–1. Their first meeting came at St. Petersburg in 2019 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–1. Berrettini has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Berrettini leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Berrettini has taken 7 sets to Baena's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Berrettini | Carballes Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Berrettini | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 67% | 14/21 | 58% | 14/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 6/19 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 13/40 | 43% | 20/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 43% | 12/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 53% | 9/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 44% | 7/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 16/18 | 83% | 20/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 14/18 | 58% | 14/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Berrettini 3, Carballes Baena 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Baena
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Apr 7, 2024
Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech
C Clay · Final
Oct 20, 2022
Tennis Napoli Open - Naples
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 12, 2022
Firenze Open - Florence
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 12, 2019
St. Petersburg
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Berrettini | Baena | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Berrettini | Roberto Carballes Baena | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 71% | 5/7 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 14% | 1/7 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 10 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 11% | 1/9 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 2.16 |
| ROI % | -25.1% | -54.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.26u | -3.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | — |
| Route | JPN → CHN | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Berrettini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Baena's 0%).
| Opponent | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Carreno Busta | W 63 64 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Alexander Ritschard
Seville Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Pedro Vives Marcos
Porto Challenger · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 31
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Porto Challenger · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 30
Jacob Fearnley
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 24
Olle Wallin
Bonn Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Max Houkes
Bonn Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Marc-Andrea Huesler
Zug Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 21
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round Qualifying
Jul 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–50 matches
| Metric | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 58% | 51% |
| Sets won | 57% | 51% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Berrettini | Baena |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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