Matteo Berrettini vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Berrettini and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2022; Matteo Berrettini leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–1. Across all meetings Berrettini has taken 5 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Davis Cup, World Group, F, ITA-ESP 2-0 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Berrettini | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Berrettini | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 15/20 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 30% | 6/20 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 28% | 11/40 | 45% | 27/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 38% | 11/29 | 47% | 18/38 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 57% | 12/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 17/19 | 89% | 31/35 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 79% | 15/19 | 66% | 23/35 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Berrettini 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 767 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Nov 23, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, F, ITA-ESP 2-0
H Hard · Rubber 1
Aug 9, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 23, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Berrettini | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Berrettini | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 75% | 6/8 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 38% | 3/8 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 25% | 2/8 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–3 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.85 | 2.29 |
| ROI % | +2.9% | +0.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.20u | +0.07u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Berrettini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Busta's 38%).
| Opponent | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 76 36 | W 63 76 63 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 67 46 | L 63 57 57 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | L 36 46 63 75 36 | L 36 26 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 76 57 67 64 76 | W 64 63 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 67 75 61 62 | W 46 76 62 |
| Dusan Lajovic | W 36 64 62 | L 46 63 36 |
| Quentin Halys | W 62 64 | L 64 57 36 |
| Vit Kopriva | L 46 36 | L 36 61 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Arthur Fils
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Stan Wawrinka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Tomas Machac
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Valentin Royer
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Vilius Gaubas
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 1st Round
Jul 21
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Matej Dodig
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 1st Round
Jul 14
Rafael Jodar
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–65 matches
| Metric | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 65% |
| Sets won | 56% | 60% |
| Games won | 51% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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