Matteo Berrettini vs Pablo Carreno BustaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Berrettini and Pablo Carreno Busta have met 3 times since 2022; Matteo Berrettini leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–1. Across all meetings Berrettini has taken 5 sets to Busta's 2. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Davis Cup, World Group, F, ITA-ESP 2-0 (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Berrettini | Carreno Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Berrettini | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 65% | 13/20 | 53% | 18/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 6/19 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 33% | 13/39 | 46% | 24/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 10/28 | 48% | 14/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 6/10 | 59% | 13/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 15/17 | 89% | 24/27 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 76% | 13/17 | 67% | 18/27 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Berrettini 1, Carreno Busta 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Busta
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 54% vs 🏹 Frontrunner across 1,115 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the frontrunner's fast starts.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Nov 23, 2025
Davis Cup, World Group, F, ITA-ESP 2-0
H Hard · Rubber 1
Aug 9, 2022
National Bank Open - Montreal
H Hard · 1st Round
Jan 23, 2022
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 4th Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Berrettini | Busta | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Berrettini | Pablo Carreno Busta | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 92% | 11/12 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 50% | 6/12 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 17% | 2/12 |
| 10 or more | 56% | 5/9 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 15 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 11% | 1/9 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 6–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.82 | 2.47 |
| ROI % | -25.1% | -9.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.26u | -1.18u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Berrettini has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Busta's 40%).
| Opponent | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Mariano Navone | L 63 36 46 67 | W 46 75 63 |
| Adolfo Daniel Vallejo | L 67 16 | L |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 60 60 | L 46 26 |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | W 16 76 64 | L 36 36 |
| Adrian Mannarino | W 46 75 75 | W 63 64 |
| Jiri Lehecka | L 46 76 36 | L 16 67 64 26 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | L 67 46 | L 63 57 57 |
| Grigor Dimitrov | L 36 46 63 75 36 | L 36 26 |
| Francisco Comesana | W 76 57 67 64 76 | W 64 63 |
| Marton Fucsovics | W 67 75 61 62 | W 46 76 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Felix Auger-Aliassime
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 12
Alejandro Tabilo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Mariano Navone
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Daniil Medvedev
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Adrian Mannarino
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yi Zhou
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jiri Lehecka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 49–58 matches
| Metric | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 62% |
| Sets won | 56% | 58% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Berrettini | Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
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