Matteo Arnaldi vs Tomas MachacPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Arnaldi and Tomas Machac have met 3 times since 2023; Tomas Machac leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Dubai in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Machac leads 3–0. Machac has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Arnaldi has taken 1 sets to Machac's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at Miami Open - Miami (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arnaldi | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Arnaldi | Tomas Machac | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 41% | 7/17 | 50% | 6/12 |
| Wins a set when losing | 58% | 11/19 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 58% | 21/36 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 24% | 4/17 | 29% | 4/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 60% | 12/20 | 55% | 6/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 13/15 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 47% | 7/15 | 75% | 6/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arnaldi 0, Machac 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arnaldi
⚙️ Grinder
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Tomas Machac.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 26, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Feb 26, 2023
Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 0–2 |
| Avg odds | 1.87 | 1.68 |
| ROI % | -33.3% | -100.0% |
| Units P/L | -2.66u | -2.00u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 313 mi · 503 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Machac has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Arnaldi's 33%).
| Opponent | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Quentin Halys | L 63 16 67 36 | W 64 62 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 76 57 63 62 | W 64 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 46 | L 46 26 26 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 64 36 | L 46 64 36 |
| Jaume Munar | W 63 36 63 | W 64 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 26 36 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Damir Dzumhur
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · Quarterfinals
Jul 16
Federico Agustin Gomez
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Quentin Halys
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Giles Hussey
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 23
Matteo Berrettini
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Alexander Zverev
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Zizou Bergs
French Open - Paris · 1st Round
May 24
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Internazionali BNL d'Italia - Rome · 1st Round
May 7
Cameron Norrie
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 2nd Round
Apr 24
Francisco Comesana
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid · 1st Round
Apr 22
Andrey Rublev
Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell - Barcelona · Quarterfinals
Apr 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 31–42 matches
| Metric | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 50% | 52% |
| Sets won | 49% | 52% |
| Games won | 49% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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