Matteo Arnaldi vs Tomas MachacPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Arnaldi and Tomas Machac have met 3 times since 2023; Tomas Machac leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Dubai in 2023 on hard. On hard courts Machac leads 3–0. Machac has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Arnaldi has taken 1 sets to Machac's 6. Their most recent meeting: Tomas Machac won at Miami Open - Miami (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arnaldi | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Arnaldi | Tomas Machac | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 8/19 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 36% | 5/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 57% | 21/37 | 48% | 13/27 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 5/16 | 21% | 3/14 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 13/21 | 57% | 8/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 13/15 | 100% | 8/8 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 8/15 | 63% | 5/8 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arnaldi 0, Machac 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Machac
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Matteo Arnaldi and Tomas Machac are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 4,120 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 26, 2024
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 4th Round
Feb 26, 2023
Dubai
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Arnaldi | Machac | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Arnaldi | Tomas Machac | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 2–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.92 | 1.95 |
| ROI % | -29.3% | -56.4% |
| Units P/L | -2.93u | -4.51u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 5 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Machac has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Arnaldi's 30%).
| Opponent | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Molcan | L 36 16 | L 36 26 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 76 46 46 | W 76 67 64 |
| James Duckworth | L 75 36 26 67 | W 63 63 |
| Toby Samuel | W 36 64 64 | L 26 36 26 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L | L 75 46 26 75 26 |
| Quentin Halys | L 63 16 67 36 | W 64 62 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 76 57 63 62 | W 64 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 46 | L 46 26 26 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 64 36 | L 46 64 36 |
| Jaume Munar | W 63 36 63 | W 64 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexander Bublik
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Zhizhen Zhang
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Alex Molcan
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Arthur Gea
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round Qualifying
Sep 29
Yannick Hanfmann
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Toby Samuel
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Mees Rottgering
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pablo Carreno Busta
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 33–44 matches
| Metric | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 48% |
| Sets won | 50% | 48% |
| Games won | 49% | 47% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arnaldi | Machac |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
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