Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor FritzPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Arnaldi and Taylor Fritz have met 2 times since 2024; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco in 2024 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Arnaldi has taken 2 sets to Fritz's 3. Their most recent meeting: Taylor Fritz won at Citi Open - Washington (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 2nd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 9 · 10:00 PM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 4.00 or longer, Matteo Arnaldi has won 4 of 23 (17%). That is level with the 19% the price implied.
At 1.24 or shorter, Taylor Fritz has won 113 of 138 (82%). That is level with the 83% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Matteo Arnaldi meets Taylor Fritz in the 2nd Round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 9, 2026. The two are deadlocked at 1-1 in head-to-head play. Arnaldi, ranked 38th, arrives in Shanghai with one win in his last five matches. Fritz, the 12th seed, has dropped three straight but brings a 60% hard court record into the matchup.
Against common opponents, the pair have split results unevenly. Fritz defeated both Dusan Lajovic and Jacob Fearnley; Arnaldi beat Frances Tiafoe, Hubert Hurkacz, and Jaume Munar. Fritz has played only twice in the past two weeks, while Arnaldi has competed three times in that span and has momentum from a win one day before Shanghai. Form readings diverge sharply: Arnaldi sits at 40% over his last ten matches, while Fritz holds 50% over the same sample despite his recent slide.
Arnaldi relies on heavy hitting from the baseline and sustained aggression. Fritz banks on serve depth and first-strike tennis to control points early. On hard courts, Fritz has posted a 12-8 record compared to Arnaldi's 8-12 mark. Fritz needs to stabilize after losses and impose his serve; Arnaldi must maintain the intensity that carried him into the second round and neutralize Fritz's weapons from the back of the court.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arnaldi | Fritz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 8/19 | 54% | 15/28 |
| Wins a set when losing | 59% | 10/17 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 58% | 21/36 | 45% | 21/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 5/16 | 33% | 14/42 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 12/17 | 80% | 4/5 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 13/21 | 60% | 18/30 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 13/15 | 85% | 22/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 8/15 | 58% | 15/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arnaldi 0, Fritz 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Fritz
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,927 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jul 24, 2025
Citi Open - Washington
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 26, 2024
Abierto Mexicano Telcel - Acapulco
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Arnaldi | Fritz | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Arnaldi | Taylor Fritz | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 9/9 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 5 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 10 or more | 11% | 1/9 | 53% | 8/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 7% | 1/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–5 | 10–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.80 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -21.4% | -13.5% |
| Units P/L | -1.93u | -2.03u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 3 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | GBR → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Arnaldi and Fritz posted a 40% win rate.
| Opponent | Arnaldi | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz | L 67 16 | L 36 64 1113 |
| Jaume Munar | W 63 36 63 | L 76 46 36 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 46 64 46 | W 67 75 76 |
| Fabian Marozsan | W 75 26 64 | W 62 64 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 64 36 | W 76 64 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | L | L 26 57 46 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 46 46 | L 46 46 26 |
| Dusan Lajovic | L 06 63 46 | W 63 64 63 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 67 36 76 64 | L 46 46 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | W 76 57 63 62 | L 46 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Lorenzo Musetti
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Carlos Alcaraz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Francisco Cerundolo
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Mattia Bellucci
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Darwin Blanch
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Christopher O'Connell
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–60 matches
| Metric | Arnaldi | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 62% |
| Sets won | 51% | 59% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arnaldi | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arnaldi | Fritz |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |