Matteo Arnaldi vs Rei SakamotoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Arnaldi and Rei Sakamoto have met 2 times since 2025; Matteo Arnaldi leads 2–0. Their first meeting came at Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai in 2025 on hard. On hard courts Arnaldi leads 2–0. Arnaldi has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Arnaldi has taken 4 sets to Sakamoto's 1. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arnaldi | Sakamoto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 8/19 | 63% | 29/46 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 25% | 6/24 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 57% | 21/37 | 33% | 23/70 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 5/16 | 47% | 23/49 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 13/21 | 51% | 20/39 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 13/15 | 90% | 37/41 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 8/15 | 71% | 29/41 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arnaldi 1, Sakamoto 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Sakamoto
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Sep 30, 2026
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 1st Round
Oct 2, 2025
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Arnaldi | Sakamoto | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Arnaldi | Rei Sakamoto | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 8/8 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 3 or more | 88% | 7/8 | 100% | 20/20 |
| 5 or more | 63% | 5/8 | 85% | 17/20 |
| 10 or more | 13% | 1/8 | 45% | 9/20 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 25% | 5/20 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/8 | 5% | 1/20 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–5 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 3.31 | 1.86 |
| ROI % | -27.4% | +15.9% |
| Units P/L | -2.19u | +3.19u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Arnaldi has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Sakamoto's 40%).
| Opponent | Arnaldi | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Alex de Minaur | W 46 76 64 | L 67 46 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 26 36 | W 64 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 67 36 76 64 | L 36 67 57 |
| Alexandre Muller | L 16 76 46 | W 63 63 |
| Alastair Gray | W 76 76 | W 16 61 64 |
| Alex Molcan | L 36 16 | L 46 06 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 64 36 | L 67 16 75 64 36 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 26 63 62 | L 46 67 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 75 64 | W 64 36 76 |
| Tristan Schoolkate | W 76 63 | L 36 46 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alex de Minaur
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Andrey Rublev
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Marco Trungelliti
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Kyrian Jacquet
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Seongchan Hong
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
Anton Shepp
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, NZL-JPN 1-3 · Rubber 1
Sep 19
Ji Sung Nam
Shanghai Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–74 matches
| Metric | Arnaldi | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 64% |
| Sets won | 50% | 58% |
| Games won | 49% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arnaldi | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arnaldi | Sakamoto |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 0 |
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