Matteo Arnaldi vs Nuno BorgesPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Matteo Arnaldi and Nuno Borges have met 3 times since 2022; Nuno Borges leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Roseto Degli Abruzzi 1 Challenger in 2022 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Arnaldi has taken 4 sets to Borges's 5. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Arnaldi won at Cagliari Challenger (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Arnaldi | Borges | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Matteo Arnaldi | Nuno Borges | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 42% | 8/19 | 76% | 19/25 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 41% | 11/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 57% | 21/37 | 33% | 17/52 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 5/16 | 57% | 16/28 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 13/21 | 46% | 13/28 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 87% | 13/15 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 53% | 8/15 | 79% | 19/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Arnaldi 0, Borges 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Borges
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
May 1, 2026
Cagliari Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Jun 27, 2022
Wimbledon
G Grass · 1st Round Qualifying
Mar 9, 2022
Roseto Degli Abruzzi 1 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Arnaldi | Borges | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Matteo Arnaldi | Nuno Borges | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 69% | 11/16 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 1/10 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 19% | 3/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 9–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.92 | 1.93 |
| ROI % | -29.3% | -11.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.93u | -1.88u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Arnaldi | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 663 mi · 1,067 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Borges has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Arnaldi's 33%).
| Opponent | Arnaldi | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| James Duckworth | L 75 36 26 67 | W 36 64 62 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 26 36 | W 63 64 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 76 46 46 | W 64 62 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 75 64 | W 67 62 64 |
| Damir Dzumhur | L 67 76 67 | L 67 46 |
| Frances Tiafoe | W 76 67 36 76 64 | L 46 46 |
| Rafael Jodar | L 16 64 36 | L 67 46 |
| Jesper de Jong | W 64 76 | W 63 60 |
| Cristian Garin | L 26 46 | W 64 36 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Jiri Lehecka
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Learner Tien
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Andrey Rublev
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Francisco Cerundolo
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Thanasi Kokkinakis
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–60 matches
| Metric | Arnaldi | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 52% | 48% |
| Sets won | 50% | 50% |
| Games won | 49% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Arnaldi | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Arnaldi | Borges |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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