Madison Keys vs Marta KostyukPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk
#11 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Marta Kostyuk have met 3 times since 2023; Madison Keys leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2023 on grass. On grass courts Keys leads 2–0. Across all meetings Keys has taken 4 sets to Kostyuk's 2. Their most recent meeting: Marta Kostyuk won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 75% | 24/32 | 73% | 27/37 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 8/15 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 16/47 | 31% | 15/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 59% | 22/37 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 45% | 5/11 | 54% | 7/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 25/30 | 91% | 31/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 80% | 24/30 | 79% | 27/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 2, Kostyuk 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Kostyuk
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 7, 2026
National Bank Open - Toronto
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jul 5, 2024
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Jul 8, 2023
Wimbledon - London
G Grass · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Kostyuk | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Marta Kostyuk | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 72% | 13/18 | 60% | 9/15 |
| 5 or more | 39% | 7/18 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 11–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.43 | 1.55 |
| ROI % | -5.3% | +3.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.95u | +0.49u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Keys and Kostyuk posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Keys | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 26 | L 63 16 26 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 67 | L 46 46 |
| Ashlyn Krueger | W 61 75 | W 64 64 |
| Amanda Anisimova | W 36 62 63 | W 64 63 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | W 63 60 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 60 61 | W 76 62 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 67 67 | W 61 64 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 64 75 | L 62 26 46 |
| Diane Parry | W 64 63 | W 61 64 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 36 36 | L 46 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Mirra Andreeva
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Sloane Stephens
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Sofia Kenin
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Iga Swiatek
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Madison Keys
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Katherine Sebov
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · Semifinals
Jul 9
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–48 matches
| Metric | Keys | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 77% |
| Sets won | 65% | 71% |
| Games won | 56% | 59% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 2 | 0 |
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