Head-to-Head

Madison Keys vs Marta KostyukPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

🇺🇸Madison Keys

#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed

6wBack after 6w off

2–1

3 meetings · sets 4–2

🇺🇦Marta Kostyuk

#10 · 23 yrs · Right-Handed

4wBack after 4w off

Madison Keys and Marta Kostyuk have met 3 times since 2023; Madison Keys leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Wimbledon - London in 2023 on grass. On grass courts Keys leads 2–0. Across all meetings Keys has taken 4 sets to Kostyuk's 2. Their most recent meeting: Marta Kostyuk won at National Bank Open - Toronto (2026).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

Indicator	Keys	Kostyuk
Indicator	Madison Keys		Marta Kostyuk
Wins in straight sets	74%	25/34	72%	26/36
Wins a set when losing	56%	9/16	40%	4/10
Goes to a deciding set	36%	18/50	30%	14/46
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite	57%	23/40	59%	20/34
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog	38%	3/8	67%	8/12
Tiebreak sets won	46%	6/13	40%	4/10
Wins after taking set 1	81%	26/32	91%	30/33
Wins 2-0 after taking set 1	78%	25/32	79%	26/33

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 2, Kostyuk 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Keys

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies

Kostyuk

👑 The Complete Package

Elite serve & returnHigh BP conversionAll-surface dominanceClutch performer

Matchup analysis

💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.

Previous meetings

3 career meetings, newest first

Aug 7, 2026

National Bank Open - Toronto

H Hard · 3rd Round

Kostyuk

Jul 5, 2024

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · 3rd Round

Keys

Jul 8, 2023

Wimbledon - London

G Grass · 3rd Round

Keys

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

Outcome	Keys	Kostyuk
Outcome	Madison Keys		Marta Kostyuk
1 or more	100%	10/10	100%	12/12
3 or more	70%	7/10	75%	9/12
5 or more	50%	5/10	58%	7/12
10 or more	20%	2/10	0%	0/12
15 or more	0%	0/10	0%	0/12
20 or more	0%	0/10	0%	0/12

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

Metric	Keys	Kostyuk
W-L	6–4	8–4
Avg odds	1.40	1.49
ROI %	-24.8%	-11.8%
Units P/L	-2.48u	-1.41u

Travel

Last 30 days

Metric	Keys	Kostyuk
Countries	—	1
Events	—	1
Matches	—	1
Distance	—	0 mi · 0 km
Route	—	UKR

Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Kostyuk has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs Keys's 33%).

Opponent	Keys	Kostyuk
Liudmila Samsonova	L 63 46 46	L 64 26 57
Linda Noskova	L 46 67	L 57 75 46
Iga Swiatek	L 16 26	L 63 16 26
Ashlyn Krueger	W 61 75	W 64 64
Amanda Anisimova	W 36 62 63	W 64 63
Tatjana Maria	W 75 64	W 63 60
Jessica Pegula	L 67 67	W 61 64
Diane Parry	L	W 61 64
Aryna Sabalenka	L 36 36	L 46 36

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Keys

LWWLWWWL

Qinwen Zheng

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

6³7

Sep 5

Anna Bondar

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

76⁵

Sep 3

Alina Korneeva

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

Sep 1

Sara Bejlek

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

6⁵7

Aug 21

Xiyu Wang

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

76³

Aug 20

Katerina Siniakova

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Daria Snigur

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

Aug 16

Marta Kostyuk

National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round

Aug 7

Kostyuk

LLWWWLWW

Liudmila Samsonova

Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara · Quarterfinals

Sep 17

Linda Noskova

U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round

Sep 6

Ekaterina Alexandrova

U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round

Sep 4

Sloane Stephens

U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round

Sep 2

Storm Hunter

U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round

Aug 30

Coco Gauff

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

Aug 22

Mirra Andreeva

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

Aug 19

Sloane Stephens

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

Aug 18

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ KeysKeys ahead↓ Kostyuk

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–50 matches

Metric	Keys	Kostyuk
Matches won	68%	78%
Sets won	65%	72%
Games won	56%	59%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

Stage	Keys	Kostyuk
Grand Slam	2	0
WTA 1000	0	1

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

Surface	Keys	Kostyuk
Hard	0	1
Grass	2	0

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Madison Keys vs Marta Kostyuk FAQ

Madison Keys leads the head-to-head 2–1 over 3 meetings.

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Style Matchup

Previous meetings

Prop Research

Player ROI

Travel

Common opponents

Recent Form

Rivalry momentum

Win rate

Record by tier

By surface

More Keys rivalries

More Kostyuk rivalries

Madison Keys vs Marta Kostyuk FAQ

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Marta Kostyuk head-to-head?

Who won the last Madison Keys vs Marta Kostyuk match?

How many times have Madison Keys and Marta Kostyuk played?

Who leads the Madison Keys vs Marta Kostyuk head-to-head on grass courts?

When did Madison Keys and Marta Kostyuk last play each other?