Madison Keys vs Maria SakkariPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5w4 meetings · sets 1–8
🇬🇷Maria Sakkari
#35 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
Madison Keys and Maria Sakkari have met 4 times since 2020; Maria Sakkari leads 4–0. Their first meeting came at Australian Open - Melbourne in 2020 on hard. On hard courts Sakkari leads 3–0. Sakkari has won the last 4 meetings. Across all meetings Keys has taken 1 sets to Sakkari's 8. Their most recent meeting: Maria Sakkari won at Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Keys | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Madison Keys | Maria Sakkari | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 74% | 25/34 | 67% | 16/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 9/16 | 32% | 7/22 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 18/50 | 33% | 15/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 23/40 | 52% | 12/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 38% | 3/8 | 50% | 11/22 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 46% | 6/13 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 81% | 26/32 | 76% | 19/25 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 25/32 | 64% | 16/25 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Keys 0, Sakkari 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Sakkari
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
4 career meetings, newest first
Aug 4, 2023
Mubadala Citi DC Open - Washington
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2022
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 1st Round
Mar 3, 2021
Qatar Total Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 24, 2020
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 3rd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Keys | Sakkari | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Madison Keys | Maria Sakkari | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 10/10 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 3 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 73% | 11/15 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 5/10 | 47% | 7/15 |
| 10 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Keys | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 9–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.40 | 2.10 |
| ROI % | -24.8% | -16.5% |
| Units P/L | -2.48u | -2.47u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Keys | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 5 |
| Distance | — | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km |
| Route | — | SGP → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Sakkari's 20%).
| Opponent | Keys | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Talia Gibson | W 64 64 | L 16 64 26 |
| Qinwen Zheng | L 61 67 57 | L 64 67 46 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 16 62 63 | L 61 67 26 |
| Alina Korneeva | W 75 64 | W 61 75 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 16 26 | L 64 16 16 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 67 | W 75 76 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 64 | L 36 36 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 64 75 | L 63 46 16 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 46 64 62 | L 36 16 |
| Karolina Pliskova | W 63 63 | L 46 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Elina Svitolina
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Storm Hunter
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Nao Hibino
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Linda Fruhvirtova
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 22
Yuliia Starodubtseva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Robin Montgomery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 17
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 46–50 matches
| Metric | Keys | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 52% |
| Sets won | 65% | 51% |
| Games won | 56% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Keys | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Keys | Sakkari |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 3 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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