Leylah Fernandez vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#32 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
2 meetings · sets 2–3
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Leylah Fernandez and Madison Keys have met 2 times since 2021; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2021 on clay. Across all meetings Fernandez has taken 2 sets to Keys's 3. Their most recent meeting: Leylah Fernandez won at Rothesay International - Eastbourne (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fernandez | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Leylah Fernandez | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 17/25 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 8/26 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 16/51 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 48% | 16/33 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 53% | 9/17 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 29% | 5/17 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 75% | 21/28 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 17/28 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Fernandez 0, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fernandez
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Leylah Fernandez and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 28, 2024
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Jun 2, 2021
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fernandez | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Leylah Fernandez | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 91% | 10/11 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 55% | 6/11 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 27% | 3/11 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/11 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 4–6 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.10 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -8.7% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.87u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (67% vs Fernandez's 22%).
| Opponent | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Xiyu Wang | L 63 26 26 | W 76 64 |
| Katerina Siniakova | L 75 46 67 | W 61 63 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 57 75 63 | L 63 46 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 26 | W 63 61 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 36 46 | W 76 61 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 26 26 | L 67 67 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 06 | L 36 63 06 |
| Victoria Mboko | L 46 46 | W 63 57 75 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 60 57 63 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Naomi Osaka
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Mirra Andreeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Renata Zarazua
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Magda Linette
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Xi Yao Wang
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 2nd Round
Jun 23
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–51 matches
| Metric | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 49% | 68% |
| Sets won | 49% | 65% |
| Games won | 52% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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