Leylah Fernandez vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇨🇦Leylah Fernandez
#25 · 23 yrs · Left-Handed
Title2 meetings · sets 2–3
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
5wLeylah Fernandez and Madison Keys have met 2 times since 2021; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at French Open - Paris in 2021 on clay. Across all meetings Fernandez has taken 2 sets to Keys's 3. Their most recent meeting: Leylah Fernandez won at Rothesay International - Eastbourne (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Fernandez | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Leylah Fernandez | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 69% | 22/32 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 31% | 8/26 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 18/58 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 20/40 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 56% | 10/18 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 29% | 5/17 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 79% | 27/34 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 22/34 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Fernandez 0, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Fernandez
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 3,072 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Jun 28, 2024
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Jun 2, 2021
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Fernandez | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Leylah Fernandez | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 93% | 14/15 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 40% | 6/15 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 13% | 2/15 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/15 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.16 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +32.2% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | +5.15u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 7 | — |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | — |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Fernandez's 30%).
| Opponent | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Talia Gibson | W 75 60 | W 64 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 61 46 36 | L 67 67 |
| Xiyu Wang | L 63 26 26 | W 76 64 |
| Katerina Siniakova | L 75 46 67 | W 61 63 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 57 75 63 | L 63 46 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 26 | W 63 61 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 36 46 | W 76 61 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 06 | L 36 63 06 |
| Victoria Mboko | L 46 46 | W 63 57 75 |
| Tereza Valentova | W 60 57 63 | W 64 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ekaterina Alexandrova
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round
Oct 12
Kamilla Rakhimova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Talia Gibson
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Final
Sep 27
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Semifinals
Sep 26
Mirra Andreeva
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Alycia Parks
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Kyoka Okamura
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–58 matches
| Metric | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 55% | 68% |
| Sets won | 54% | 65% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Fernandez | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
| Grass | 1 | 0 |
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