Learner Tien vs Sebastian BaezPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Learner Tien and Sebastian Baez have met 1 time since 2026; Learner Tien leads 1–0. Across all meetings Tien has taken 2 sets to Baez's 0. Their most recent meeting: Learner Tien won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tien | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Learner Tien | Sebastian Baez | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 50% | 16/32 | 76% | 26/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 6/16 | 19% | 5/26 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 22/48 | 22% | 13/60 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 46% | 13/28 | 63% | 17/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 52% | 15/29 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 77% | 17/22 | 64% | 7/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 24/26 | 85% | 29/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 62% | 16/26 | 76% | 26/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tien 1, Baez 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tien
💥 Big Hitter
Baez
🎾 All-Court
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🎾 All-Court is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 620 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Aug 16, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tien | Baez | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Learner Tien | Sebastian Baez | ||
| 1 or more | 83% | 10/12 | 76% | 16/21 |
| 3 or more | 67% | 8/12 | 29% | 6/21 |
| 5 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 10% | 2/21 |
| 10 or more | 8% | 1/12 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/21 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/21 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tien | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–5 | 14–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.62 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | -14.6% | +8.8% |
| Units P/L | -1.75u | +1.76u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tien | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 3 |
| Events | 2 | 4 |
| Matches | 7 | 9 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 3,066 mi · 4,934 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA → MEX → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tien has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Baez's 40%).
| Opponent | Tien | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Shelton | L 26 36 | W 75 63 |
| Miomir Kecmanovic | W 64 67 76 | W 63 36 64 |
| Andrey Rublev | L 46 46 | L 16 26 |
| Cristian Garin | W 60 26 60 62 | W 76 16 75 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | L 57 46 | L 62 57 26 02 |
| Alexander Bublik | W 61 46 76 | L 16 26 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 64 36 61 | L 57 36 |
| Adam Walton | W 76 76 | L 26 26 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 64 60 63 | L 46 06 |
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | W 76 63 | W 76 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Sebastian Baez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Ben Shelton
National Bank Open - Montreal · Semifinals
Aug 13
Daniel Merida Aguilar
National Bank Open - Montreal · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Thiago Agustin Tirante
National Bank Open - Montreal · 4th Round
Aug 9
Tommy Paul
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Gael Monfils
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Adrian Mannarino
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Hugo Grenier
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Hubert Hurkacz
Cancun Challenger · Final
Aug 24
Lloyd Harris
Cancun Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 23
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Cancun Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Cancun Challenger · 2nd Round
Aug 21
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Grigor Dimitrov
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Zizou Bergs
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–64 matches
| Metric | Tien | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 68% | 55% |
| Sets won | 61% | 53% |
| Games won | 53% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tien | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tien | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
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