Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Juan Manuel Cerundolo
#55 · 24 yrs · L
5 meetings · sets 8–2
🇵🇪Juan Pablo Varillas
#200 · 30 yrs · R
Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 5 times since 2021; Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Cordoba in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Cerundolo leads 4–1. Cerundolo has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Cerundolo has taken 8 sets to Varillas's 2. Their most recent meeting: Juan Manuel Cerundolo won at Cordoba Challenger (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Manuel Cerundolo | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 62% | 21/34 | 63% | 25/40 |
| Wins a set when losing | 32% | 7/22 | 29% | 8/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 34% | 23/68 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 41% | 7/17 | 29% | 6/21 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 75% | 12/16 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 47% | 8/17 | 52% | 14/27 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 27/30 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 21/30 | 66% | 25/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Manuel Cerundolo 3, Pablo Varillas 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cerundolo
💥 Big Hitter
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 7, 2025
Cordoba Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 21, 2024
Curitiba Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 30, 2021
Lima 2 Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
May 13, 2021
Zagreb
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 3, 2021
Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cerundolo | Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 17/18 | 100% | 17/17 |
| 3 or more | 72% | 13/18 | 53% | 9/17 |
| 5 or more | 61% | 11/18 | 41% | 7/17 |
| 10 or more | 11% | 2/18 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–8 | 12–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.95 | 2.12 |
| ROI % | -2.4% | +32.2% |
| Units P/L | -0.36u | +5.79u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 5 | 3 |
| Distance | 1,611 mi · 2,592 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | ARG |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Varillas's 20%).
| Opponent | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Mejia | W 64 64 | L 46 75 16 |
| Zdenek Kolar | W 46 63 64 | L 67 76 67 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 64 64 | L 26 36 |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | W 61 60 | W 63 75 |
| Sebastian Gima | W 63 75 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Carlos Alcaraz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Nicolas Mejia
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Bu Yunchaokete
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 26
Yi Zhou
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Arthur Gea
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Ignacio Buse
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 27
Sebastian Baez
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 26
Felipe Meligeni Alves
Antofagasta Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 6
Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo
Buenos Aires Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Murkel Dellien
Buenos Aires Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 23
Tomas Farjat
Buenos Aires Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 22
Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 5
Sep 19
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Davis Cup, Group I, 1R, PER-PAR 3-2 · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Thiago Seyboth Wild
Genoa Challenger · Quarterfinals
Sep 11
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 2nd Round
Sep 10
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–68 matches
| Metric | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 59% | 59% |
| Sets won | 54% | 55% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 4 | 1 |
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