Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Juan Pablo VarillasPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇷Juan Manuel Cerundolo
#51 · 24 yrs · L
35 meetings · sets 8–2
🇵🇪Juan Pablo Varillas
#232 · 30 yrs · R
4w3Juan Manuel Cerundolo and Juan Pablo Varillas have met 5 times since 2021; Juan Manuel Cerundolo leads 4–1. Their first meeting came at Cordoba in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Cerundolo leads 4–1. Cerundolo has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Cerundolo has taken 8 sets to Varillas's 2. Their most recent meeting: Juan Manuel Cerundolo won at Cordoba Challenger (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Manuel Cerundolo | Pablo Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 22/36 | 72% | 26/36 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 8/21 | 30% | 8/27 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 39% | 22/57 | 29% | 18/63 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 36% | 5/14 | 35% | 6/17 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 80% | 12/15 | 91% | 10/11 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 9/18 | 43% | 10/23 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 29/33 | 89% | 34/38 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 67% | 22/33 | 68% | 26/38 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Manuel Cerundolo 3, Pablo Varillas 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cerundolo
💥 Big Hitter
Varillas
🪃 Counterpuncher
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🪃 Counterpuncher is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 2,363 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 7, 2025
Cordoba Challenger
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 21, 2024
Curitiba Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
Oct 30, 2021
Lima 2 Challenger
C Clay · Semifinals
May 13, 2021
Zagreb
C Clay · Semifinals
Feb 3, 2021
Cordoba
C Clay · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cerundolo | Varillas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | Juan Pablo Varillas | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 15/16 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 81% | 13/16 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 31% | 5/16 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 15 or more | 6% | 1/16 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 9–5 | 5–2 |
| Avg odds | 2.79 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +57.4% | +49.5% |
| Units P/L | +8.04u | +3.47u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 6 | 2 |
| Distance | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | SMR |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Cerundolo has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Varillas's 40%).
| Opponent | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Auger Aliassime | L 57 16 | W 63 61 |
| Zdenek Kolar | W 46 63 64 | L 67 76 67 |
| Roman Andres Burruchaga | W 64 64 | L 26 36 |
| Gonzalo Villanueva | W 61 60 | W 63 75 |
| Sebastian Gima | W 63 75 | L 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Ignacio Buse
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · Quarterfinals
Aug 27
Dhakshineswar Suresh
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 25
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Arthur Rinderknech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Mark Lajal
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Casper Ruud
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Hamad Medjedovic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Marco Trungelliti
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel · 1st Round
Jul 21
Mili Poljicak
San Marino Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 1
Timofey Skatov
San Marino Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Francesco Maestrelli
San Marino Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Jacopo Vasami
San Marino Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 28
Nicolas Mejia
Bogota Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Bogota Challenger · Quarterfinals
Jul 10
Luis Carlos Alvarez
Bogota Challenger · 2nd Round
Jul 8
Bruno Fernandez
Bogota Challenger · 1st Round
Jul 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 63–63 matches
| Metric | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 57% |
| Sets won | 57% | 56% |
| Games won | 52% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 3 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cerundolo | Varillas |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 4 | 1 |
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