Jessica Pegula vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–3
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#83 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
5wJessica Pegula and Paula Badosa have met 3 times since 2023; Jessica Pegula leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston in 2023 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 4 sets to Badosa's 3. Their most recent meeting: Paula Badosa won at China Open - Beijing (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 33% | 13/39 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 55% | 17/31 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 4/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 83% | 19/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 78% | 18/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 1, Badosa 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jessica Pegula and Paula Badosa are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,096 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 1, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 18, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 7, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 94% | 16/17 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 71% | 12/17 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 35% | 6/17 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 6% | 1/17 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/17 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/17 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 13–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.70 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | +18.2% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | +3.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 12 | — |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | — |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | — |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Badosa's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | W 16 63 62 |
| Emma Navarro | W 75 62 | L 64 36 57 |
| Simona Waltert | W 63 62 | W 75 75 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 63 75 | L 46 26 |
| Yulia Putintseva | W 46 64 75 | W 61 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 63 61 | L 26 16 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 16 36 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 62 64 | W 63 75 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 62 36 46 | L 36 26 |
| Elina Svitolina | W 62 64 | L 75 26 57 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Mayar Sherif
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Panna Udvardy
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 2nd Round
Jul 23
Katarzyna Kawa
MSC Hamburg Ladies Open - Hamburg · 1st Round
Jul 22
Tamara Zidansek
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Semifinals
Jul 18
Panna Udvardy
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · Quarterfinals
Jul 17
Alevtina Ibragimova
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 2nd Round
Jul 16
Anhelina Kalinina
UniCredit Iasi Open - Iasi · 1st Round
Jul 14
Simona Waltert
Nordea Open - Bastad · Final
Jul 11
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 59% |
| Sets won | 66% | 59% |
| Games won | 56% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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