Jessica Pegula vs Paula BadosaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5w3 meetings · sets 4–3
🇪🇸Paula Badosa
#58 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Paula Badosa have met 3 times since 2023; Jessica Pegula leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston in 2023 on clay. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 4 sets to Badosa's 3. Their most recent meeting: Paula Badosa won at China Open - Beijing (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Paula Badosa | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 31/51 | 74% | 20/27 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 27/66 | 31% | 14/45 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 29/53 | 51% | 19/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 9/13 | 50% | 7/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 39/44 | 88% | 21/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 31/44 | 83% | 20/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 1, Badosa 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Badosa
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Oct 1, 2024
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 4th Round
Aug 18, 2024
Western & Southern Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · Semifinals
Apr 7, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Badosa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Paula Badosa | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 93% | 13/14 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 64% | 9/14 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 21% | 3/14 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/14 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 10–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 1.72 |
| ROI % | +4.8% | -3.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.86u | -0.52u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 2 |
| Events | — | 2 |
| Matches | — | 6 |
| Distance | — | 10,936 mi · 17,599 km |
| Route | — | BRA → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Badosa's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Jelena Ostapenko | W 46 63 62 | L 67 57 |
| Emma Navarro | W 36 64 63 | L 64 36 57 |
| Coco Gauff | L 26 46 | L 46 67 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 63 62 | W 26 62 75 |
| Simona Waltert | W 63 62 | W 75 75 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 63 75 | L 46 26 |
| Yulia Putintseva | W 46 64 75 | W 61 62 |
| Iva Jovic | W 46 63 61 | L 26 16 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 16 36 |
| Katerina Siniakova | W 62 64 | W 63 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Daria Kasatkina
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Nadia Podoroska
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Semifinals
Sep 19
Mary Stoiana
SP Open - Sao Paulo · Quarterfinals
Sep 18
Jazmin Ortenzi
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 2nd Round
Sep 17
Justina Mikulskyte
SP Open - Sao Paulo · 1st Round
Sep 16
Coco Gauff
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Daria Kasatkina
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–66 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 60% |
| Sets won | 69% | 59% |
| Games won | 57% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Badosa |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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