Jessica Pegula vs Katie BoulterPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#3 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 5–3
🇬🇧Katie Boulter
#60 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Katie Boulter have met 3 times since 2024; Jessica Pegula leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at United Cup in 2024 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 5 sets to Boulter's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Katie Boulter | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 31/57 | 60% | 12/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 9/19 | 35% | 7/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 46% | 35/76 | 38% | 15/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 30/60 | 45% | 10/22 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 63% | 10/16 | 47% | 8/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 12/19 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 88% | 42/48 | 78% | 18/23 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 31/48 | 52% | 12/23 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 1, Boulter 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
💥 Big Hitter
Boulter
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 24, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 20, 2025
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jan 3, 2024
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Katie Boulter | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 20/21 | 80% | 8/10 |
| 3 or more | 76% | 16/21 | 30% | 3/10 |
| 5 or more | 33% | 7/21 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/21 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/21 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 17–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 2.26 |
| ROI % | +10.4% | +3.4% |
| Units P/L | +2.29u | +0.31u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 12 | 3 |
| Distance | 761 mi · 1,225 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | AUT → CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Boulter's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Amanda Anisimova | W 64 26 76 | L 16 36 |
| Sorana Cirstea | W 62 46 75 | L 36 16 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 36 36 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 61 63 | W 76 64 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 62 62 | L 76 36 36 |
| Donna Vekic | W 46 62 63 | L 16 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 62 36 46 | W 75 26 64 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 64 61 | W 61 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 62 | L 75 46 26 |
| Kimberly Birrell | L 61 36 36 | W 75 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Amanda Anisimova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Sorana Cirstea
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 19
Emma Navarro
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Simona Waltert
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Diana Shnaider
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 8
Kamilla Rakhimova
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 6
Linda Noskova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Katie Volynets
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Kayla Cross
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Ashlyn Krueger
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Tyra Caterina Grant
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Leylah Fernandez
Bad Homburg Open - Bad Homburg · 1st Round
Jun 21
Donna Vekic
The HSBC Championships - London · Semifinals
Jun 13
Elena Rybakina
The HSBC Championships - London · Quarterfinals
Jun 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 40–76 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 50% |
| Sets won | 66% | 49% |
| Games won | 56% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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