Jessica Pegula vs Katie BoulterPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5w3 meetings · sets 5–3
🇬🇧Katie Boulter
#54 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Jessica Pegula and Katie Boulter have met 3 times since 2024; Jessica Pegula leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at United Cup in 2024 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Pegula has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Pegula has taken 5 sets to Boulter's 3. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Pegula | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jessica Pegula | Katie Boulter | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 31/51 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 27/66 | 36% | 15/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 29/53 | 46% | 11/24 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 58% | 7/12 | 41% | 7/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 69% | 9/13 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 39/44 | 79% | 19/24 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 70% | 31/44 | 54% | 13/24 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Pegula 1, Boulter 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Boulter
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 24, 2026
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 2nd Round
Sep 20, 2025
Billie Jean King Cup, Finals
H Hard · Rubber 2
Jan 3, 2024
United Cup
H Hard · Round Robin
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Pegula | Boulter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jessica Pegula | Katie Boulter | ||
| 1 or more | 95% | 18/19 | 50% | 4/8 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 17/19 | 13% | 1/8 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 14–4 | 3–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.48 | 3.03 |
| ROI % | +4.8% | -36.1% |
| Units P/L | +0.86u | -2.89u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | — | 1 |
| Events | — | 1 |
| Matches | — | 2 |
| Distance | — | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | — | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Boulter's 40%).
| Opponent | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Sorana Cirstea | W 63 64 | L 36 16 |
| Leylah Fernandez | W 16 64 63 | L 76 36 36 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 63 62 | L 67 67 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 64 36 | L 36 36 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 61 63 | W 76 64 |
| Donna Vekic | W 46 62 63 | L 16 36 |
| Elena Rybakina | L 62 36 46 | W 75 26 64 |
| Jaqueline Cristian | W 64 61 | W 61 63 |
| Anastasia Potapova | W 76 62 | L 75 46 26 |
| Kimberly Birrell | L 61 36 36 | W 75 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Mai Hontama
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Sep 30
Karolina Muchova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Carol Young Suh Lee
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Linda Noskova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Katie Volynets
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Kayla Cross
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 3
Ashlyn Krueger
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–66 matches
| Metric | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 77% | 50% |
| Sets won | 69% | 49% |
| Games won | 57% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Pegula | Boulter |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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