Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#18 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka have met 3 times since 2016; Naomi Osaka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2016 on clay. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–0. Osaka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 0 sets to Osaka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 67% | 22/33 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 27% | 3/11 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/42 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 13/23 | 55% | 18/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 11/17 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 71% | 10/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 94% | 32/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 0, Osaka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 1, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 27, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 24, 2016
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 77% | 10/13 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 69% | 9/13 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 31% | 4/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 9–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 1.46 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | -14.3% |
| Units P/L | -2.04u | -1.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 3 |
| Distance | 592 mi · 952 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | POR → ROU | ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Ostapenko's 50%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Elise Mertens | L 26 63 36 | W 63 36 75 |
| Sara Bejlek | L 46 36 | W 76 64 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 76 76 |
| Magdalena Frech | L 16 36 | W 64 61 |
| Panna Udvardy | W 36 61 62 | W 62 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 75 | L 46 26 |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | W 75 64 | W 46 64 63 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 46 | W 62 76 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 62 60 | W 63 36 64 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 64 46 46 | W 63 63 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Karolina Muchova
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 6
Sara Bejlek
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 4
Maria Timofeeva
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Elise Mertens
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Katerina Siniakova
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Anastasia Zakharova
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–44 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 75% |
| Sets won | 57% | 68% |
| Games won | 53% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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