Jelena Ostapenko vs Naomi OsakaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#31 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 0–6
🇯🇵Naomi Osaka
#13 · 28 yrs · Right-Handed
Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka have met 3 times since 2016; Naomi Osaka leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Roland Garros in 2016 on clay. On hard courts Osaka leads 2–0. Osaka has won the last 3 meetings. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 0 sets to Osaka's 6. Their most recent meeting: Naomi Osaka won at Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Naomi Osaka | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 15/22 | 69% | 22/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 53% | 9/17 | 33% | 4/12 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 16/39 | 32% | 14/44 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 12/22 | 52% | 17/33 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 9/15 | 67% | 6/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 64% | 9/14 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 70% | 16/23 | 88% | 30/34 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 15/23 | 65% | 22/34 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 0, Osaka 3).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
👑 The Complete Package
Osaka
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,896 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 1, 2025
Omnium Banque Nationale - Montreal
H Hard · 3rd Round
Aug 27, 2024
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
May 24, 2016
Roland Garros
C Clay · Round of 128
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Osaka | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Naomi Osaka | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 7/7 | 100% | 16/16 |
| 3 or more | 86% | 6/7 | 88% | 14/16 |
| 5 or more | 57% | 4/7 | 81% | 13/16 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 6% | 1/16 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/7 | 0% | 0/16 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–2 | 12–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.74 | 1.66 |
| ROI % | -7.7% | +7.9% |
| Units P/L | -0.54u | +1.27u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 1 | 6 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 350 mi · 563 km |
| Route | POL | AUT → CAN |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Osaka has a higher win rate against shared opponents (90% vs Ostapenko's 60%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Magdalena Frech | L 16 36 | W 64 61 |
| Panna Udvardy | W 36 61 62 | W 62 64 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 75 | L 46 26 |
| Elisabetta Cocciaretto | W 75 64 | W 46 64 63 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 46 | W 62 76 |
| Antonia Ruzic | W 62 60 | W 63 36 64 |
| Xi Yao Wang | L 64 46 46 | W 63 63 |
| Ekaterina Alexandrova | W 64 62 | W 62 62 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 16 67 | W 63 46 62 |
| Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano | W 63 61 | W 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Antonia Ruzic
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Harriet Dart
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Zeynep Sonmez
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · Quarterfinals
Jun 25
Panna Udvardy
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 2nd Round
Jun 24
Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Magda Linette
French Open - Paris · 2nd Round
May 27
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · Quarterfinals
Aug 12
Leylah Fernandez
National Bank Open - Toronto · 4th Round
Aug 10
Elise Mertens
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 8
Panna Udvardy
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Alexandra Eala
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Semifinals
Aug 1
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Karolina Muchova
Wimbledon - London · Quarterfinals
Jul 7
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 5
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 39–44 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 73% |
| Sets won | 56% | 67% |
| Games won | 52% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Osaka |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.