Jelena Ostapenko vs Jessica PegulaPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
5 meetings · sets 6–7
🇺🇸Jessica Pegula
#4 · 32 yrs · Right-Handed
5wJelena Ostapenko and Jessica Pegula have met 5 times since 2015; Jessica Pegula leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Quebec City in 2015 on hard. On hard courts Pegula leads 3–2. Across all meetings Ostapenko has taken 6 sets to Pegula's 7. Their most recent meeting: Jessica Pegula won at BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Ostapenko | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Jelena Ostapenko | Jessica Pegula | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 17/24 | 61% | 31/51 |
| Wins a set when losing | 56% | 10/18 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 40% | 17/42 | 41% | 27/66 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 57% | 13/23 | 55% | 29/53 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 11/17 | 58% | 7/12 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 3/6 | 69% | 9/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 69% | 18/26 | 89% | 39/44 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 65% | 17/26 | 70% | 31/44 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Ostapenko 1, Pegula 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Pegula
👑 The Complete Package
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 👑 The Complete Package is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Mar 9, 2026
BNP Paribas Open - Indian Wells
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 4, 2023
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 3rd Round
Feb 15, 2023
Qatar TotalEnergies Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 3, 2021
Qatar Total Open - Doha
H Hard · 2nd Round
Sep 17, 2015
Quebec City
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Ostapenko | Pegula | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Jelena Ostapenko | Jessica Pegula | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 6/6 | 95% | 18/19 |
| 3 or more | 83% | 5/6 | 90% | 17/19 |
| 5 or more | 50% | 3/6 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/6 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 2–4 | 14–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.89 | 1.48 |
| ROI % | -34.0% | +4.8% |
| Units P/L | -2.04u | +0.86u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | — |
| Events | 2 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 592 mi · 952 km | — |
| Route | POR → ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Pegula has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Ostapenko's 70%).
| Opponent | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 61 | W 62 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 46 46 | L 57 26 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 16 67 | W 63 64 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | W 26 62 63 | W 63 62 |
| Magdalena Frech | L 16 36 | W 36 63 62 |
| Simona Waltert | W 62 75 | W 63 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 64 75 | L 64 46 06 |
| Anna Kalinskaya | W 61 62 | W 63 75 |
| Zeynep Sonmez | W 63 60 | W 64 60 |
| Francesca Jones | W 62 62 | W |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Aryna Sabalenka
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 10
Emma Navarro
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Sorana Cirstea
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Leylah Fernandez
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Sofia Kenin
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Elena Gabriela Ruse
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Coco Gauff
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 24
Iga Swiatek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Matchup videos
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–66 matches
| Metric | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 77% |
| Sets won | 57% | 69% |
| Games won | 53% | 57% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 500 | 0 | 2 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Ostapenko | Pegula |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
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