Hugo Gaston vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Matteo Berrettini have met 3 times since 2024; Matteo Berrettini leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Phoenix Challenger in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–0. Berrettini has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Berrettini leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 2 sets to Berrettini's 6. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Miami Open - Miami (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 67% | 14/21 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 32% | 6/19 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/55 | 33% | 13/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 11/18 | 50% | 10/20 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 24/29 | 89% | 16/18 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 78% | 14/18 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 0, Berrettini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 55% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 3,438 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 27, 2024
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Final
Mar 12, 2024
Phoenix Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 100% | 9/9 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 78% | 7/9 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 56% | 5/9 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 33% | 3/9 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 11% | 1/9 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.43 | 1.82 |
| ROI % | -2.1% | -25.1% |
| Units P/L | -0.30u | -2.26u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 103 mi · 165 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 7 shared opponents, both Gaston and Berrettini posted a 43% win rate.
| Opponent | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | L 46 26 46 | W 60 60 |
| Alexei Popyrin | W | L 26 36 |
| Titouan Droguet | W 60 63 | W 36 61 64 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 16 75 67 | L |
| Ignacio Buse | L 16 26 | L 67 76 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 62 64 | L 46 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 36 46 | W 76 67 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Brandon Nakashima
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Aleksandar Kovacevic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Mariano Navone
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Stan Wawrinka
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–60 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 58% |
| Sets won | 54% | 57% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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