Hugo Gaston vs Matteo BerrettiniPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Matteo Berrettini have met 3 times since 2024; Matteo Berrettini leads 3–0. Their first meeting came at Phoenix Challenger in 2024 on hard. On hard courts Berrettini leads 2–0. Berrettini has won the last 3 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Berrettini leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 2 sets to Berrettini's 6. Their most recent meeting: Matteo Berrettini won at Miami Open - Miami (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 22/35 | 75% | 15/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 8/22 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 21/57 | 28% | 11/40 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 17/35 | 38% | 11/29 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 60% | 6/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 50% | 9/18 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 27/30 | 89% | 17/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 22/30 | 79% | 15/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 0, Berrettini 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Berrettini
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
The 🤖 Servebot archetype wins about 57% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 2,280 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Matteo Berrettini.
Servebot players often use high ace rate and dominant service to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Mar 22, 2025
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jul 27, 2024
Generali Open - Kitzbuhel
C Clay · Final
Mar 12, 2024
Phoenix Challenger
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Berrettini | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Matteo Berrettini | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 6/13 | 100% | 8/8 |
| 5 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 75% | 6/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 38% | 3/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 4–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 1.85 |
| ROI % | +7.8% | +2.9% |
| Units P/L | +1.24u | +0.20u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 3 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 712 mi · 1,146 km |
| Route | CAN | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 6 shared opponents, both Gaston and Berrettini posted a 50% win rate.
| Opponent | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Titouan Droguet | W 60 63 | W 36 61 64 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 64 | W 67 76 76 76 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 16 75 67 | L 57 25 |
| Ignacio Buse | L 16 26 | L 67 76 46 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 62 64 | L 46 36 |
| Cameron Norrie | L 36 46 | W 76 67 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luca Van Assche
Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jesper de Jong
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Semifinals
Jul 25
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Daniel Altmaier
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Jan Choinski
Braunschweig Challenger · Final
Jul 12
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Braunschweig Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Jiri Lehecka
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Titouan Droguet
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Mariano Navone
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 3
Grigor Dimitrov
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Arthur Fils
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Stan Wawrinka
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Matteo Arnaldi
Roland Garros · Quarterfinals
Jun 3
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
French Open - Paris · 4th Round
Jun 1
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 48–61 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 56% |
| Sets won | 56% | 56% |
| Games won | 52% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 0 | 2 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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