Hugo Gaston vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2021; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Paris in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Musetti has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 4 sets to Musetti's 6. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 63% | 22/35 | 72% | 21/29 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 8/22 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 37% | 21/57 | 26% | 12/46 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 49% | 17/35 | 59% | 20/34 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 57% | 12/21 | 30% | 3/10 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 10/16 | 47% | 7/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 27/30 | 90% | 26/29 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 22/30 | 72% | 21/29 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 0, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Musetti
🎯 Baseliner
Matchup analysis
The 🎯 Baseliner archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 790 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Lorenzo Musetti.
Baseliner players often use precise groundstrokes and court control to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 6, 2023
Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 10, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 31, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 88% | 7/8 |
| 3 or more | 46% | 6/13 | 63% | 5/8 |
| 5 or more | 15% | 2/13 | 25% | 2/8 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/8 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 5–3 |
| Avg odds | 1.96 | 1.62 |
| ROI % | +7.8% | -18.1% |
| Units P/L | +1.24u | -1.45u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 2 |
| Events | 1 | 3 |
| Matches | 2 | 7 |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | 1,200 mi · 1,932 km |
| Route | CAN | USA → CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Gaston's 20%).
| Opponent | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Daniel Altmaier | L 26 57 | W 64 62 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 62 46 26 16 | W 76 64 |
| Aleksandr Shevchenko | L 16 63 16 | W 63 61 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 26 | W 75 62 |
| Stan Wawrinka | W 64 64 | W 46 76 64 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Luca Van Assche
Quebec City Challenger · Semifinals
Aug 22
Jesper de Jong
Quebec City Challenger · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Luca Van Assche
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Semifinals
Jul 25
Tiago Torres
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · Quarterfinals
Jul 24
Titouan Droguet
Millennium Estoril Open - Estoril · 2nd Round
Jul 22
Daniel Altmaier
Nordea Open - Bastad · 1st Round
Jul 14
Jan Choinski
Braunschweig Challenger · Final
Jul 12
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Braunschweig Challenger · Semifinals
Jul 11
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Nicolas Mejia
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · Quarterfinals
Jul 31
Aleksandar Vukic
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 52–61 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 61% | 65% |
| Sets won | 56% | 62% |
| Games won | 52% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP World Tour 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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