Hugo Gaston vs Lorenzo MusettiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Hugo Gaston and Lorenzo Musetti have met 3 times since 2021; Lorenzo Musetti leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Paris in 2021 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Musetti has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Gaston has taken 4 sets to Musetti's 6. Their most recent meeting: Lorenzo Musetti won at Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gaston | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Hugo Gaston | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 66% | 21/32 | 73% | 16/22 |
| Wins a set when losing | 39% | 9/23 | 25% | 4/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/55 | 26% | 10/38 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 47% | 16/34 | 56% | 15/27 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 60% | 12/20 | 33% | 3/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 61% | 11/18 | 38% | 5/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 83% | 24/29 | 86% | 19/22 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 72% | 21/29 | 73% | 16/22 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gaston 0, Musetti 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gaston
🪃 Counterpuncher
Musetti
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 3,969 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Apr 6, 2023
Grand Prix Hassan II - Marrakech
C Clay · 2nd Round
Nov 10, 2021
Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan
H Hard · Round Robin
Oct 31, 2021
ATP Masters 1000 Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round Qualifying
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gaston | Musetti | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Hugo Gaston | Lorenzo Musetti | ||
| 1 or more | 77% | 10/13 | 91% | 10/11 |
| 3 or more | 31% | 4/13 | 73% | 8/11 |
| 5 or more | 8% | 1/13 | 46% | 5/11 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/11 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/13 | 0% | 0/11 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 7–7 | 6–5 |
| Avg odds | 2.43 | 1.50 |
| ROI % | -2.1% | -28.7% |
| Units P/L | -0.30u | -3.16u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 103 mi · 165 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Musetti has a higher win rate against shared opponents (100% vs Gaston's 29%).
| Opponent | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | L 76 67 16 | W 67 75 64 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 76 64 | W 75 62 |
| Arthur Fery | W 76 75 | W 63 63 75 |
| Daniel Altmaier | L 26 57 | W 64 62 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 16 75 67 | W |
| Francisco Cerundolo | L 62 46 26 16 | W 76 64 |
| Martin Landaluce | L 36 26 | W 75 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Liam Draxl
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Jaime Faria
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 2nd Round
Sep 25
Sho Shimabukuro
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · 1st Round
Sep 24
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 30
Colton Smith
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Andre Ilagan
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Guido Ivan Justo
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Yi Zhou
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Dane Sweeny
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Arthur Fery
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Jaime Faria
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Michael Zheng
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daniel Altmaier
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Rafael Jodar
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–60 matches
| Metric | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 57% | 60% |
| Sets won | 54% | 59% |
| Games won | 51% | 52% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gaston | Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 0 | 1 |
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