Frances Tiafoe vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Mackenzie McDonald have met 7 times since 2016; Mackenzie McDonald leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Tiburon in 2016 on hard. On hard courts McDonald leads 4–2. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 9 sets to McDonald's 8. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2023).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 20/33 | 65% | 13/20 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 5/14 | 32% | 9/28 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 18/47 | 33% | 16/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 15/28 | 42% | 11/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 37% | 7/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 24% | 4/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 96% | 27/28 | 74% | 14/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 20/28 | 68% | 13/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 3, McDonald 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
McDonald
⚙️ Grinder
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 682 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Frances Tiafoe.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.
Previous meetings
7 career meetings, newest first
Feb 8, 2023
Dallas Open - Dallas
H Hard · 2nd Round
Feb 27, 2019
Acapulco
H Hard · Round of 16
Apr 11, 2018
Houston
C Clay · Round of 32
Feb 1, 2018
Dallas
H Hard · Round of 16
Nov 3, 2016
Charlottesville
H Hard · Round of 16
Oct 8, 2016
Stockton
H Hard · Semifinals
Sep 30, 2016
Tiburon
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | McDonald | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Mackenzie McDonald | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 86% | 6/7 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 16/18 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 57% | 4/7 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/7 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/7 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 3–7 |
| Avg odds | 2.04 | 2.21 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -56.3% |
| Units P/L | +4.21u | -5.63u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 1 |
| Events | 2 | 1 |
| Matches | 4 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | POR |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs McDonald's 44%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Michelsen | W 57 36 75 63 76 | L 46 57 |
| Terence Atmane | L 64 36 46 | W 63 61 |
| Rinky Hijikata | W 64 64 | L 36 67 |
| Matteo Arnaldi | L 67 76 63 67 46 | W 60 61 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 67 76 61 62 | W 63 76 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 62 | W 64 62 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 36 76 | L 62 16 26 |
| Sebastian Korda | L 57 16 | L 46 57 |
| Alex de Minaur | L 36 46 57 | L 26 26 36 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Ryan Nijboer
Braga Challenger · 1st Round
Oct 7
Toby Samuel
Porto Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 29
Dalibor Svrcina
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Thiago Seyboth Wild
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 26
Stefano Napolitano
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Jacob Fearnley
Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round
Aug 20
Yibing Wu
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Alex Michelsen
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 51–63 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 41% |
| Sets won | 63% | 43% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP 250 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | McDonald |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 4 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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