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Head-to-Head

Frances Tiafoe vs Mackenzie McDonaldPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats

Frances Tiafoe

🇺🇸Frances Tiafoe

#12 · 28 yrs · R

4
3–4

7 meetings · sets 9–8

Mackenzie McDonald

🇺🇸Mackenzie McDonald

#146 · 31 yrs · R

4

Frances Tiafoe and Mackenzie McDonald have met 7 times since 2016; Mackenzie McDonald leads 4–3. Their first meeting came at Tiburon in 2016 on hard. On hard courts McDonald leads 4–2. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 9 sets to McDonald's 8. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Dallas Open - Dallas (2023).

Spread & Straight-Sets Form

Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months

IndicatorTiafoeMcDonald
Wins in straight sets57%68%
Wins a set when losing38%24%
Goes to a deciding set41%28%
Covers −1.5 sets as favorite50%50%
Covers +1.5 sets as underdog65%29%
Tiebreak sets won58%41%
Wins after taking set 189%87%
Wins 2-0 after taking set 163%74%

Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 7 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 3, McDonald 1).

Style Matchup

Playing styles and historical archetype record

Tiafoe

💥 Big Hitter

Power groundstrokesHigh winner countAggressive shotsShort rallies
vs

McDonald

⚙️ Grinder

Relentless consistencyDeep court positioningHigh rally toleranceMental fortitude

Matchup analysis

The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 55% vs ⚙️ Grinder across 1,211 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Frances Tiafoe.

Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the grinder's relentless consistency.

Previous meetings

7 career meetings, newest first

Feb 8, 2023

Dallas Open - Dallas

H Hard · 2nd Round

61
63
Tiafoe

Feb 27, 2019

Acapulco

H Hard · Round of 16

7967
57
36
McDonald

Apr 11, 2018

Houston

C Clay · Round of 32

63
63
Tiafoe

Feb 1, 2018

Dallas

H Hard · Round of 16

57
62
36
McDonald

Nov 3, 2016

Charlottesville

H Hard · Round of 16

06
36
McDonald

Oct 8, 2016

Stockton

H Hard · Semifinals

7764
63
Tiafoe

Sep 30, 2016

Tiburon

H Hard · Quarterfinals

63
6577
57
McDonald

Prop Research

Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days

OutcomeTiafoeMcDonald
1 or more100%100%
3 or more95%50%
5 or more60%38%
10 or more10%0%
15 or more0%0%
20 or more0%0%

Player ROI

Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days

MetricTiafoeMcDonald
W-L15–55–6
Avg odds1.921.96
ROI %+31.0%-24.7%
Units P/L+6.20u-2.72u

Travel

Last 30 days

MetricTiafoeMcDonald
Countries21
Events21
Matches61
Distance712 mi · 1,146 km0 mi · 0 km
RouteCAN → USACAN

Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.

Common opponents

Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months

Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (56% vs McDonald's 44%).

OpponentTiafoeMcDonald
Terence Atmane
L
64
36
46
W
63
61
Rinky Hijikata
W
64
64
L
36
67
Matteo Arnaldi
L
67
76
63
67
46
W
60
61
Jaime Faria
W
46
67
76
61
62
W
63
76
Jenson Brooksby
W
64
62
W
64
62
Arthur Cazaux
W
76
61
L
36
26
Aleksandar Kovacevic
W
64
36
76
L
62
16
26
Sebastian Korda
L
57
16
L
46
57
Alex de Minaur
L
36
46
57
L
26
26
36

Recent Form

Last five matches per player

Tiafoe
LWWWWWWL
L

Arthur Fils

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final

36
61
06

Aug 23

W

Brandon Nakashima

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals

75
63

Aug 23

W

Lorenzo Musetti

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals

762
75

Aug 22

W

Felix Auger Aliassime

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round

63
64

Aug 20

W

Learner Tien

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round

64
46
64

Aug 19

W

Lorenzo Sonego

Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round

63
64

Aug 17

W

Marin Cilic

National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round

57
62
62

Aug 5

L

Terence Atmane

Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round

64
36
46

Jul 28

McDonald
LLLLWWWL
L

Jacob Fearnley

Quebec City Challenger · 1st Round

46
57

Aug 20

L

Alex Michelsen

Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round

46
57

Jul 28

L

Adam Walton

Newport Challenger · 1st Round

16
36

Jul 8

L

Patrick Kypson

Wimbledon - London · 1st Round

63
16
46
46

Jun 30

W

Roberto Carballes Baena

Wimbledon · 2nd Round Qualifying

64
64

Jun 29

W

Felipe Meligeni Alves

Wimbledon · 1st Round Qualifying

62
6577
63

Jun 29

W

Christopher O'Connell

Wimbledon · 3rd Round Qualifying

63
64
64

Jun 25

L

Shintaro Mochizuki

Nottingham 2 Challenger · 2nd Round

637
57

Jun 16

Rivalry momentum

Cumulative head-to-head lead over time

↑ TiafoeMcDonald ahead↓ McDonald

Win rate

Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 53–56 matches

MetricTiafoeMcDonald
Matches won66%49%
Sets won59%48%
Games won53%50%

Record by tier

Head-to-head record by tournament tier

StageTiafoeMcDonald
ATP 50001
ATP 25010
ATP World Tour 25010
ATP Challenger Tour13

By surface

Head-to-head record per surface

SurfaceTiafoeMcDonald
Hard24
Clay10

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Frances Tiafoe vs Mackenzie McDonald FAQ

Mackenzie McDonald leads the head-to-head 4–3 over 7 meetings.