Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Sonego have met 5 times since 2022; Lorenzo Sonego leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Sonego leads 3–2. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 5 sets to Sonego's 6. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 57% | 17/30 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 38% | 6/16 | 30% | 6/20 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 41% | 19/46 | 36% | 13/36 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 50% | 13/26 | 39% | 7/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 65% | 13/20 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 58% | 11/19 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 89% | 24/27 | 71% | 12/17 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 63% | 17/27 | 53% | 9/17 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 2, Sonego 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (50% vs 50%, 3,444 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Aug 17, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 8, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 27, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Nov 24, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, QF, ITA-USA 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 1
Oct 31, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 20/20 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 95% | 19/20 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 60% | 12/20 | 87% | 13/15 |
| 10 or more | 10% | 2/20 | 33% | 5/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/20 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 15–5 | 8–8 |
| Avg odds | 1.92 | 2.27 |
| ROI % | +31.0% | -18.3% |
| Units P/L | +6.20u | -2.92u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 6 | 6 |
| Distance | 712 mi · 1,146 km | 1,024 mi · 1,648 km |
| Route | CAN → USA | CAN → USA |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Sonego's 40%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Lorenzo Musetti | W 76 75 | L 36 36 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | L 64 36 46 67 |
| Jan Choinski | W 46 62 75 62 | W 46 64 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 61 63 | W 64 76 |
| Flavio Cobolli | W 62 76 | W 26 63 75 |
| Tommy Paul | L 57 64 67 | L 36 26 46 |
| Ignacio Buse | W 67 63 62 | L 36 36 |
| Mattia Bellucci | W 63 64 | L 46 61 57 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 46 | L 46 36 |
| Aleksandar Kovacevic | W 64 36 76 | W 76 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Final
Aug 23
Brandon Nakashima
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 23
Lorenzo Musetti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 22
Felix Auger Aliassime
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Learner Tien
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 19
Lorenzo Sonego
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Marin Cilic
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Terence Atmane
Citi Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Pierre-Hugues Herbert
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 1st Round
Aug 24
Frances Tiafoe
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 17
Juncheng Shang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 14
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 1st Round
Aug 4
Raphael Collignon
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 2nd Round
Jul 15
Joel Schwaerzler
EFG Swiss Open - Gstaad · 1st Round
Jul 13
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 43–56 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 66% | 47% |
| Sets won | 59% | 46% |
| Games won | 53% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 1 | 0 |
| ATP World Tour Masters 1000 | 1 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
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