Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo SonegoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Frances Tiafoe and Lorenzo Sonego have met 5 times since 2022; Lorenzo Sonego leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Sonego leads 3–2. Across all meetings Tiafoe has taken 5 sets to Sonego's 6. Their most recent meeting: Frances Tiafoe won at Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Tiafoe | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Frances Tiafoe | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 20/33 | 63% | 10/16 |
| Wins a set when losing | 36% | 5/14 | 38% | 8/21 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 38% | 18/47 | 38% | 14/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 54% | 15/28 | 44% | 8/18 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 68% | 13/19 | 47% | 9/19 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 10/20 | 50% | 8/16 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 96% | 27/28 | 68% | 13/19 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 71% | 20/28 | 53% | 10/19 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 4 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Tiafoe 2, Sonego 2).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Tiafoe
💥 Big Hitter
Sonego
🤖 Servebot
Matchup analysis
💥 Big Hitter vs 🤖 Servebot is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Aug 17, 2026
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati
H Hard · 2nd Round
Oct 8, 2023
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
H Hard · 2nd Round
Mar 27, 2023
Miami Open - Miami
H Hard · 3rd Round
Nov 24, 2022
Davis Cup, Finals, QF, ITA-USA 2-1
H Hard · Rubber 1
Oct 31, 2022
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Tiafoe | Sonego | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Frances Tiafoe | Lorenzo Sonego | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 18/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 3 or more | 89% | 16/18 | 100% | 13/13 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 10/18 | 92% | 12/13 |
| 10 or more | 17% | 3/18 | 39% | 5/13 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 8% | 1/13 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/18 | 0% | 0/13 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 13–5 | 4–9 |
| Avg odds | 2.04 | 2.58 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -46.9% |
| Units P/L | +4.21u | -6.09u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 3 |
| Matches | 4 | 4 |
| Distance | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km | 3,172 mi · 5,105 km |
| Route | JPN → CHN | CHN → JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Tiafoe has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Sonego's 30%).
| Opponent | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | L 67 64 67 | L 67 46 |
| Jenson Brooksby | W 64 62 | L 75 57 26 |
| Ben Shelton | L 64 36 36 57 | L 57 36 |
| Daniil Medvedev | W 76 64 76 | L 63 67 46 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 63 76 75 | W 62 76 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 36 46 | L 46 63 76 57 46 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | W 76 75 | L 36 36 46 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 64 64 | L 64 36 46 67 |
| Jan Choinski | W 46 62 75 62 | W 46 64 64 |
| Daniel Altmaier | W 61 63 | W 64 76 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round
Oct 11
Yannick Hanfmann
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Arthur Fils
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 2
Kei Nishikori
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Alex Michelsen
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 8
Daniil Medvedev
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 6
Valentin Vacherot
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Aziz Dougaz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Kamil Majchrzak
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round Qualifying
Sep 28
Jenson Brooksby
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 2nd Round
Sep 25
James Duckworth
Chengdu Open - Chengdu · 1st Round
Sep 24
Francesco Passaro
Genoa Challenger · 1st Round
Sep 8
Alexander Zverev
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
James Duckworth
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 3rd Round
Aug 27
Adrian Mannarino
Winston-Salem Open - Winston-Salem · 2nd Round
Aug 26
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–63 matches
| Metric | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 71% | 44% |
| Sets won | 63% | 46% |
| Games won | 54% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| ATP Masters 1000 | 2 | 2 |
| Other | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Tiafoe | Sonego |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 3 |
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