Flavio Cobolli vs Matteo ArnaldiPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Flavio Cobolli and Matteo Arnaldi have met 5 times since 2021; Matteo Arnaldi leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at Napoli 2 Challenger in 2021 on clay. On clay courts Arnaldi leads 3–2. Across all meetings Cobolli has taken 7 sets to Arnaldi's 8. Their most recent meeting: Flavio Cobolli won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Cobolli | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Flavio Cobolli | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 54% | 15/28 | 42% | 8/19 |
| Wins a set when losing | 18% | 4/22 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 34% | 17/50 | 57% | 21/37 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 11/30 | 31% | 5/16 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 12/18 | 67% | 12/18 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 52% | 12/23 | 62% | 13/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 92% | 23/25 | 87% | 13/15 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 15/25 | 53% | 8/15 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 4 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Cobolli 0, Arnaldi 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Cobolli
🤖 Servebot
Arnaldi
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (51% vs 49%, 4,932 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
May 29, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 2nd Round
Jul 26, 2023
Plava Laguna Croatia Open - Umag
C Clay · 2nd Round
Aug 1, 2022
Cordenons Challenger
C Clay · 1st Round
May 26, 2022
Vicenza Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Oct 13, 2021
Napoli 2 Challenger
C Clay · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Cobolli | Arnaldi | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Flavio Cobolli | Matteo Arnaldi | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 90% | 9/10 |
| 5 or more | 58% | 7/12 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 10 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 10% | 1/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–6 | 4–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 2.92 |
| ROI % | -0.6% | -29.3% |
| Units P/L | -0.07u | -2.93u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 4 |
| Distance | 5,722 mi · 9,208 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Cobolli and Arnaldi posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Schoolkate | W 36 63 64 75 | W 76 63 |
| James Duckworth | W 76 36 76 61 | L 75 36 26 67 |
| Rafael Jodar | W 46 76 63 | L 16 64 36 |
| Yannick Hanfmann | L 67 67 | L 76 46 46 |
| Alex de Minaur | W 75 76 63 | W 46 76 64 |
| Frances Tiafoe | L 26 67 | W 76 67 36 76 64 |
| Alexander Zverev | L 16 64 46 76 16 | L 46 46 |
| Raphael Collignon | L 57 36 | W 64 67 57 64 76 |
| Jaume Munar | W 16 76 75 | W 63 36 63 |
| Vit Kopriva | W 63 62 | W 26 63 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Adrian Mannarino
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Roman Safiullin
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Learner Tien
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Alexander Blockx
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Tristan Schoolkate
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Francisco Comesana
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Arthur Fils
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Semifinals
Aug 22
Tommy Paul
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 20
Taylor Fritz
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Bernard Tomic
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Carlos Alcaraz
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Rei Sakamoto
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Sep 30
James Duckworth
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Martin Landaluce
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Tallon Griekspoor
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Fabian Marozsan
National Bank Open - Montreal · 2nd Round
Aug 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 44–65 matches
| Metric | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 60% | 52% |
| Sets won | 55% | 50% |
| Games won | 50% | 49% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Challenger Tour | 1 | 2 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Cobolli | Arnaldi |
|---|---|---|
| Clay | 2 | 3 |
Share this matchup
Copy the link to paste in Discord or group chats.