Emma Navarro vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Emma Navarro
#27 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
5w3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wEmma Navarro and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2023; Emma Navarro leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Navarro has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Navarro has taken 4 sets to Keys's 2. Their most recent meeting: Emma Navarro won at French Open - Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Navarro | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Emma Navarro | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 56% | 14/25 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 10/20 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 47% | 21/45 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 10/27 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 71% | 12/17 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 50% | 6/12 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 19/22 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 64% | 14/22 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Navarro 2, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Navarro
💥 Big Hitter
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Emma Navarro and Madison Keys are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 19, 2023
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 4, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Navarro | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Emma Navarro | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 90% | 9/10 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 70% | 7/10 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 30% | 3/10 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 20% | 2/10 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/10 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.41 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +21.7% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | +2.17u | -2.48u |
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Across 10 shared opponents, both Navarro and Keys posted a 60% win rate.
| Opponent | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Jessica Pegula | L 63 46 36 | L 67 67 |
| Karolina Muchova | W 63 75 | W 64 75 |
| Anna Bondar | W 67 63 62 | W 57 64 76 |
| Alina Korneeva | L 26 26 | W 75 64 |
| Sara Bejlek | W 61 64 | L 63 46 67 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 26 64 16 | L 36 16 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 61 | W 75 64 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | L 46 26 | W 60 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 26 63 | L 16 26 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 76 62 | W 60 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jessica Pegula
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Anna Kalinskaya
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 7
Karolina Muchova
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 4
Caty Mcnally
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 2
Lois Boisson
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Aug 31
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anhelina Kalinina
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Alina Korneeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 45–50 matches
| Metric | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 56% | 68% |
| Sets won | 54% | 65% |
| Games won | 51% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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