Emma Navarro vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Emma Navarro
#27 · 25 yrs · Right-Handed
3 meetings · sets 4–2
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Emma Navarro and Madison Keys have met 3 times since 2023; Emma Navarro leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston in 2023 on clay. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Navarro has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Navarro has taken 4 sets to Keys's 2. Their most recent meeting: Emma Navarro won at French Open - Paris (2024).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Navarro | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Emma Navarro | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 13/25 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 50% | 11/22 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 23/47 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 37% | 11/30 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 69% | 11/16 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 62% | 8/13 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 86% | 19/22 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 59% | 13/22 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 3 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Navarro 2, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Navarro
🤖 Servebot
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🤖 Servebot vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 3,090 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Jun 1, 2024
French Open - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Sep 19, 2023
Guadalajara Open Akron - Guadalajara
H Hard · 2nd Round
Apr 4, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · 1st Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Navarro | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Emma Navarro | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 94% | 16/17 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 71% | 12/17 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 47% | 8/17 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/17 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.86 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | +0.2% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | +0.03u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Navarro has a higher win rate against shared opponents (60% vs Keys's 50%).
| Opponent | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Sara Bejlek | W 61 64 | L 63 46 67 |
| Jessica Pegula | L 57 26 | L 67 67 |
| Marta Kostyuk | L 26 64 16 | L 36 16 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 61 | W 75 64 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | L 46 26 | W 60 63 |
| Iga Swiatek | W 75 26 63 | L 16 26 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | W 76 62 | W 60 61 |
| Yuliia Starodubtseva | W 64 67 64 | W 16 62 63 |
| Anna Bondar | W 67 63 62 | W 62 75 |
| Diana Shnaider | L 36 36 | L 36 63 06 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jessica Pegula
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Anhelina Kalinina
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Alina Korneeva
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Elisabetta Cocciaretto
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 29
Sofia Kenin
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 27
Marta Kostyuk
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 4
Oksana Selekhmeteva
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 2
Paula Badosa
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 30
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 47–47 matches
| Metric | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 53% | 68% |
| Sets won | 52% | 65% |
| Games won | 50% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Navarro | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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