Elise Mertens vs Jelena OstapenkoPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇧🇪Elise Mertens
#14 · 30 yrs · Right-Handed
2 meetings · sets 3–3
🇱🇻Jelena Ostapenko
#34 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
Elise Mertens and Jelena Ostapenko have met 2 times since 2019; they are level 1–1. Their first meeting came at Luxembourg in 2019 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Mertens has taken 3 sets to Ostapenko's 3. Their most recent meeting: Elise Mertens won at China Open - Beijing (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Mertens | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Elise Mertens | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 71% | 24/34 | 71% | 17/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 33% | 7/21 | 56% | 10/18 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 31% | 17/55 | 40% | 17/42 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 55% | 21/38 | 57% | 13/23 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 8/16 | 65% | 11/17 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 63% | 5/8 | 50% | 3/6 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 28/31 | 69% | 18/26 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 77% | 24/31 | 65% | 17/26 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 0 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Mertens 0, Ostapenko 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Mertens
💥 Big Hitter
Ostapenko
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
Both Elise Mertens and Jelena Ostapenko are 💥 Big Hitter types. Mirror matchups usually come down to execution, fitness, and surface fit, across 5,594 matches in our dataset the historical split is about even.
Previous meetings
2 career meetings, newest first
Oct 5, 2026
China Open - Beijing
H Hard · 3rd Round
Oct 17, 2019
Luxembourg
H Hard · Round of 16
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Mertens | Ostapenko | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Elise Mertens | Jelena Ostapenko | ||
| 1 or more | 88% | 14/16 | 100% | 6/6 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 12/16 | 83% | 5/6 |
| 5 or more | 56% | 9/16 | 50% | 3/6 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/16 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Mertens | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 10–6 | 2–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.05 | 1.89 |
| ROI % | +23.4% | -34.0% |
| Units P/L | +3.74u | -2.04u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Mertens | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 6 | 4 |
| Distance | 2,779 mi · 4,472 km | 592 mi · 952 km |
| Route | SGP → ROU | POR → ROU |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Ostapenko has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Mertens's 60%).
| Opponent | Mertens | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Qinwen Zheng | L 57 26 | W 46 64 64 |
| Katie Volynets | W 60 46 75 | W 64 76 |
| Tatjana Maria | W 75 60 | L 64 16 26 |
| Panna Udvardy | W 61 46 63 | W 36 61 62 |
| Alexandra Eala | W 63 63 | W 64 75 |
| Elena Gabriela Ruse | L 36 36 | W 26 62 63 |
| Ella Seidel | W 63 64 | W 64 64 |
| Sorana Cirstea | L 36 26 | L 16 67 |
| Mirra Andreeva | L 36 36 | L 75 26 46 |
| Jasmine Paolini | W 46 76 63 | W 57 62 75 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Qinwen Zheng
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 10
Iga Swiatek
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 9
Coco Gauff
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Jelena Ostapenko
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Katie Volynets
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Maja Chwalinska
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · Quarterfinals
Sep 25
Naomi Osaka
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Maria Timofeeva
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Taylah Preston
Korea Open - Seoul · 2nd Round
Sep 24
Anastasia Zakharova
Korea Open - Seoul · 1st Round
Sep 22
Tatjana Maria
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Magdalena Frech
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 15
Shuai Zhang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Aryna Sabalenka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–55 matches
| Metric | Mertens | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 62% | 57% |
| Sets won | 59% | 57% |
| Games won | 54% | 53% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Mertens | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Mertens | Ostapenko |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
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