Daria Kasatkina vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#59 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
12 meetings · sets 5–22
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#23 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
Daria Kasatkina and Madison Keys have met 12 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 10–2. Their first meeting came at Olympics in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 9–1. Keys has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 5 sets to Keys's 22. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 60% | 9/15 | 75% | 24/32 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 53% | 8/15 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 49% | 17/35 | 34% | 16/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 28% | 7/25 | 59% | 22/37 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 70% | 7/10 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 33% | 4/12 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 73% | 11/15 | 83% | 25/30 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 60% | 9/15 | 80% | 24/30 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 9 of 12 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Keys 9).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
🪃 Counterpuncher vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (48% vs 52%, 7,380 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Jan 9, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 1, 2023
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Apr 7, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 13, 2022
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 6, 2022
Melbourne Summer Set 2 - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 21, 2020
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 18, 2019
Osaka
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 14, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 1, 2018
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 16, 2017
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 29, 2016
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 12, 2016
Olympics
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 89% | 8/9 | 100% | 19/19 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 68% | 13/19 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 37% | 7/19 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 16% | 3/19 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/19 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 3–7 | 13–6 |
| Avg odds | 2.44 | 1.44 |
| ROI % | -51.7% | -10.3% |
| Units P/L | -5.17u | -1.95u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 2 | 2 |
| Events | 2 | 2 |
| Matches | 2 | 6 |
| Distance | 411 mi · 662 km | 411 mi · 662 km |
| Route | CAN → POL | CAN → POL |
Host country from the tournament each match was played in, over the last 30 days. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (44% vs Kasatkina's 22%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Katerina Siniakova | L 67 26 | W 61 63 |
| Daria Snigur | L 36 63 67 | W 46 63 63 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | L 63 46 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | W 63 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 36 36 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 61 63 | W 46 64 62 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 67 60 36 | L 36 61 46 |
| Sonay Kartal | L 36 06 | L 62 26 36 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Anna Kalinskaya
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Naomi Osaka
Wimbledon - London · 3rd Round
Jul 3
Janice Tjen
Wimbledon - London · 2nd Round
Jul 1
Mingge Xu
Wimbledon - London · 1st Round
Jun 29
Mccartney Kessler
Lexus Eastbourne Open - Eastbourne · 1st Round
Jun 22
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Antonia Ruzic
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 4
Liudmila Samsonova
Mubadala DC Open - Washington · 1st Round
Jul 28
Linda Noskova
Wimbledon - London · 4th Round
Jul 6
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 35–47 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 43% | 68% |
| Sets won | 47% | 65% |
| Games won | 49% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 3 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 9 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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