Daria Kasatkina vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇦🇺Daria Kasatkina
#82 · 29 yrs · Right-Handed
12 meetings · sets 5–22
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wDaria Kasatkina and Madison Keys have met 12 times since 2016; Madison Keys leads 10–2. Their first meeting came at Olympics in 2016 on hard. On hard courts Keys leads 9–1. Keys has won the last 2 meetings. 1 of their meetings has been a final, with Keys leading those 1–0. Across all meetings Kasatkina has taken 5 sets to Keys's 22. Their most recent meeting: Madison Keys won at Adelaide International - Adelaide (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Kasatkina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daria Kasatkina | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 52% | 11/21 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 55% | 11/20 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 51% | 21/41 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 31% | 9/29 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 67% | 8/12 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 36% | 5/14 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 72% | 13/18 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 61% | 11/18 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 9 of 12 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Kasatkina 0, Keys 9).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Kasatkina
🪃 Counterpuncher
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 🪃 Counterpuncher across 7,733 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Madison Keys.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the counterpuncher's elite bp conversion.
Previous meetings
12 career meetings, newest first
Jan 9, 2025
Adelaide International - Adelaide
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Jul 1, 2023
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Final
Apr 7, 2023
Credit One Charleston Open - Charleston
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Oct 13, 2022
San Diego Open - San Diego
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 6, 2022
Melbourne Summer Set 2 - Melbourne
H Hard · 2nd Round
Jan 21, 2020
Australian Open - Melbourne
H Hard · 1st Round
Sep 18, 2019
Osaka
H Hard · Round of 32
Aug 14, 2019
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Nov 1, 2018
Zhuhai
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 16, 2017
Cincinnati
H Hard · Round of 32
Sep 29, 2016
Wuhan
H Hard · Round of 16
Aug 12, 2016
Olympics
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Kasatkina | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daria Kasatkina | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 78% | 7/9 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 33% | 3/9 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/9 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 5–6 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | -31.7% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | -3.49u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | — |
| Events | 3 | — |
| Matches | 4 | — |
| Distance | 3,433 mi · 5,525 km | — |
| Route | SGP → ROU → CZE | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Keys has a higher win rate against shared opponents (50% vs Kasatkina's 38%).
| Opponent | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Daria Snigur | L 36 63 67 | W 46 63 63 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 75 63 | L 63 46 46 |
| Mccartney Kessler | L 36 67 | W 63 61 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | L 06 57 | L 36 36 |
| Peyton Stearns | W 61 63 | W 46 64 62 |
| Anastasia Zakharova | W 64 62 | W 64 61 |
| Nikola Bartunkova | L 67 60 36 | L 36 61 46 |
| Iga Swiatek | L 75 16 16 | L 16 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Sara Sorribes Tormo
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 11
Viktorija Golubic
Wuhan Open - Wuhan · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 10
Paula Badosa
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Singapore Tennis Open - Singapore · 1st Round
Sep 21
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 2
Zeynep Sonmez
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round
Aug 13
Elena Rybakina
National Bank Open - Toronto · 2nd Round
Aug 5
Xinyu Wang
National Bank Open - Toronto · 1st Round
Aug 4
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 41–50 matches
| Metric | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 51% | 68% |
| Sets won | 51% | 65% |
| Games won | 51% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 0 | 1 |
| Grand Slam | 0 | 1 |
| WTA Finals | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 500 | 1 | 3 |
| WTA 250 | 1 | 2 |
| WTA 1000 | 0 | 3 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Kasatkina | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 9 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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