Daniil Medvedev vs Kei NishikoriPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Daniil Medvedev and Kei Nishikori have met 5 times since 2018; Daniil Medvedev leads 3–2. Their first meeting came at ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo in 2018 on clay. On hard courts Medvedev leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Medvedev has won the last 2 meetings. 2 of their meetings have been finals, split 1–1. Across all meetings Medvedev has taken 7 sets to Nishikori's 5. Their most recent meeting: Daniil Medvedev won at ATP Cup - Melbourne (2021).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Medvedev | Nishikori | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Daniil Medvedev | Kei Nishikori | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 68% | 28/41 | 45% | 5/11 |
| Wins a set when losing | 47% | 7/15 | 40% | 4/10 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 36% | 20/56 | 48% | 10/21 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 51% | 25/49 | 42% | 5/12 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 50% | 2/4 | 56% | 5/9 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 39% | 9/23 | 40% | 2/5 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 94% | 34/36 | 82% | 9/11 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 78% | 28/36 | 45% | 5/11 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 5 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Medvedev 2, Nishikori 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Medvedev
👑 The Complete Package
Nishikori
🏹 Frontrunner
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 🏹 Frontrunner is historically tight (49% vs 51%, 411 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
5 career meetings, newest first
Feb 3, 2021
ATP Cup - Melbourne
H Hard · Round Robin
Apr 24, 2019
Barcelona
C Clay · Semifinals
Jan 6, 2019
Brisbane
H Hard · Final
Oct 7, 2018
Tokyo
H Hard · Final
Apr 9, 2018
ATP Masters 1000 Monte-Carlo
C Clay · Round of 32
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Medvedev | Nishikori | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Daniil Medvedev | Kei Nishikori | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 67% | 4/6 |
| 3 or more | 100% | 17/17 | 33% | 2/6 |
| 5 or more | 88% | 15/17 | 17% | 1/6 |
| 10 or more | 82% | 14/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 15 or more | 24% | 4/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
| 20 or more | 12% | 2/17 | 0% | 0/6 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–5 | 4–5 |
| Avg odds | 1.32 | 2.70 |
| ROI % | -15.1% | -15.7% |
| Units P/L | -2.42u | -1.41u |
Small sample: ROI stabilizes with more matches; fewer than 10 in the window is noisy.
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Medvedev | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 1 |
| Matches | 9 | 1 |
| Distance | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km | 0 mi · 0 km |
| Route | CHN | JPN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Medvedev has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Nishikori's 20%).
| Opponent | Medvedev | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Frances Tiafoe | L 67 46 67 | L 46 46 |
| Rei Sakamoto | W 67 63 61 | L 46 67 |
| Marco Trungelliti | W 64 75 | L 64 57 36 |
| Juncheng Shang | W 61 63 | W 67 63 64 |
| Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | W 63 62 | L 63 46 26 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Jan-Lennard Struff
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Novak Djokovic
China Open - Beijing · Semifinals
Oct 5
Francisco Cerundolo
China Open - Beijing · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Jan-Lennard Struff
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Pablo Carreno Busta
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 2
Andrey Rublev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Final
Sep 29
Roman Safiullin
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Chak Pong Marco Lam
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Frances Tiafoe
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Rei Sakamoto
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 28
Michael Antonius
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round Qualifying
Aug 27
Sebastian Ofner
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 25
Marco Trungelliti
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 12
Francisco Comesana
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 1st Round Qualifying
Aug 11
Michael Zheng
National Bank Open - Montreal · 3rd Round Qualifying
Aug 1
Rafael Jodar
Citi Open - Washington · 2nd Round
Jul 30
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 21–68 matches
| Metric | Medvedev | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 72% | 52% |
| Sets won | 66% | 50% |
| Games won | 56% | 50% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Medvedev | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Finals | 1 | 1 |
| ATP 500 | 2 | 0 |
| ATP 250 | 0 | 1 |
| ATP Cup | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Medvedev | Nishikori |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
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