Coco Gauff vs Madison KeysPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
🇺🇸Coco Gauff
#5 · 22 yrs · Right-Handed
6 meetings · sets 8–7
🇺🇸Madison Keys
#20 · 31 yrs · Right-Handed
6wCoco Gauff and Madison Keys have met 6 times since 2022; they are level 3–3. Their first meeting came at Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide in 2022 on hard. On hard courts Gauff leads 2–1. On clay courts they are level 1–1. Across all meetings Gauff has taken 8 sets to Keys's 7. Their most recent meeting: Coco Gauff won at French Open - Paris (2025).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Gauff | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Coco Gauff | Madison Keys | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 61% | 30/49 | 74% | 25/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 75% | 12/16 | 56% | 9/16 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 48% | 31/65 | 36% | 18/50 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 53% | 29/55 | 57% | 23/40 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 89% | 8/9 | 38% | 3/8 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 65% | 11/17 | 46% | 6/13 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 90% | 37/41 | 81% | 26/32 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 73% | 30/41 | 78% | 25/32 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 3 of 6 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Gauff 2, Keys 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Gauff
👑 The Complete Package
Keys
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
👑 The Complete Package vs 💥 Big Hitter is historically tight (52% vs 48%, 4,271 matches). Neither style has a clear edge, so form, surface, and the head-to-head matter most.
Previous meetings
6 career meetings, newest first
Jun 4, 2025
French Open - Paris
C Clay · Quarterfinals
Apr 29, 2024
Mutua Madrid Open - Madrid
C Clay · 4th Round
Jun 30, 2023
Rothesay International - Eastbourne
G Grass · Semifinals
Feb 23, 2023
Dubai Duty Free Championships - Dubai
H Hard · Quarterfinals
Sep 2, 2022
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 3rd Round
Jan 14, 2022
Adelaide International 2 - Adelaide
H Hard · Semifinals
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Gauff | Keys | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Coco Gauff | Madison Keys | ||
| 1 or more | 100% | 19/19 | 100% | 10/10 |
| 3 or more | 74% | 14/19 | 70% | 7/10 |
| 5 or more | 37% | 7/19 | 50% | 5/10 |
| 10 or more | 5% | 1/19 | 20% | 2/10 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/19 | 0% | 0/10 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 16–3 | 6–4 |
| Avg odds | 1.30 | 1.40 |
| ROI % | +4.6% | -24.8% |
| Units P/L | +0.88u | -2.48u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 1 | — |
| Events | 1 | — |
| Matches | 3 | — |
| Distance | 0 mi · 0 km | — |
| Route | ROU | — |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Gauff has a higher win rate against shared opponents (70% vs Keys's 50%).
| Opponent | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Alina Korneeva | W 63 61 | W 75 64 |
| Jessica Pegula | W 62 64 | L 67 67 |
| Sara Bejlek | W 64 61 | L 63 46 67 |
| Marta Kostyuk | W 62 62 | L 36 16 |
| Liudmila Samsonova | W 26 64 61 | L 63 46 46 |
| Kayla Day | W 62 75 | W 67 64 63 |
| Karolina Muchova | L 26 61 67 | W 64 75 |
| Linda Noskova | L 46 61 67 | L 46 67 |
| Belinda Bencic | W 46 63 64 | W 46 63 62 |
| Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | L 16 76 06 | W 60 61 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Elise Mertens
China Open - Beijing · 4th Round
Oct 7
Xinran Sun
China Open - Beijing · 3rd Round
Oct 5
Maria Victoria Quinde Serrano
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Elena Rybakina
U.S. Open - New York · Semifinals
Sep 11
Mirra Andreeva
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Iva Jovic
U.S. Open - New York · 4th Round
Sep 8
Cristina Bucsa
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Paula Badosa
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Qinwen Zheng
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 5
Anna Bondar
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 3
Alina Korneeva
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 1
Sara Bejlek
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · Quarterfinals
Aug 21
Xiyu Wang
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 4th Round
Aug 20
Katerina Siniakova
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 3rd Round
Aug 18
Daria Snigur
Cincinnati Open - Cincinnati · 2nd Round
Aug 16
Marta Kostyuk
National Bank Open - Toronto · 3rd Round
Aug 7
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 50–65 matches
| Metric | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 75% | 68% |
| Sets won | 68% | 65% |
| Games won | 57% | 56% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 2 | 0 |
| WTA 500 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 250 | 0 | 1 |
| WTA 1000 | 1 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Gauff | Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 2 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 1 |
| Grass | 0 | 1 |
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