Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou BergsPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Zizou Bergs have met 1 time since 2025; Carlos Alcaraz leads 1–0. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 2 sets to Bergs's 0. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo (2025).
Upcoming match
- Tournament
- Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai
- Level
- ATP Masters 1000
- Round
- 3rd Round
- Surface
- Hard
- Date & time
- October 12 · 6:00 AM ET
Book odds
Set spread
Game spread
Record at prices like this
At 1.06 or shorter, Carlos Alcaraz has won 96 of 101 (95%). That is level with the 94% the price implied.
Book prices with the bookmaker margin removed, across every priced match we hold for each player. Green beats the price by 3 points or more, red falls that far short, grey is within 3 points. Samples under ten are not shown.
Carlos Alcaraz faces Zizou Bergs in the third round of the Shanghai Rolex Masters on October 12, with the world number 3 seeking to maintain momentum on hard court. The pair met once before, with Alcaraz winning that encounter. Bergs, ranked 39th, has advanced through two rounds to reach this stage.
Alcaraz has won all five of his last five matches and nine of his last ten, playing six matches in the past 14 days. He sits at 85% on hard courts over a recent sample. Bergs has won three of his last five matches and six of his last ten, though his hard court record stands at 45% in the same period. Both players last competed two days ago.
Alcaraz combines depth, court movement, and power to control points from the baseline and dictate in shorter rallies. Bergs relies on flat, penetrating shots and leverages his size to generate pace early in exchanges. The match asks whether Bergs can shorten points and limit Alcaraz's time to build rhythm, while Alcaraz must sustain the length and precision that has defined his recent run.
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Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Bergs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Zizou Bergs | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 63% | 15/24 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 35% | 8/23 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 36% | 17/47 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 38% | 10/26 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 52% | 11/21 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 33% | 7/21 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 86% | 18/21 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 71% | 15/21 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 1 of 1 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 1, Bergs 0).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Bergs
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Zizou Bergs.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
1 career meeting, newest first
Sep 27, 2025
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Bergs | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Zizou Bergs | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 12/12 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 83% | 10/12 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 75% | 9/12 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 25% | 3/12 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/12 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 7–7 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -31.4% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -4.40u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 2 |
| Events | 3 | 2 |
| Matches | 7 | 3 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,092 mi · 1,758 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | JPN → CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (80% vs Bergs's 40%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Lehecka | W 76 64 | L 36 76 36 |
| Jaume Munar | W 57 63 61 | W 62 64 |
| Alex Michelsen | W 76 46 61 | W 63 26 62 |
| Taylor Fritz | W 63 46 1311 | L 36 46 |
| Ben Shelton | L 76 16 36 61 67 | L 36 26 |
| Tommy Paul | W 64 63 64 | L 16 26 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 60 63 62 | W 76 46 62 63 |
| Sebastian Baez | W 61 63 | W 36 63 62 |
| Jannik Sinner | L 67 36 | L 46 26 |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | W 61 46 63 | L 67 67 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Ignacio Buse
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Vit Kopriva
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 8
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Jurij Rodionov
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, AUT-BEL · Rubber 4
Sep 19
Lukas Neumayer
Davis Cup, World Group, Q2, AUT-BEL · Rubber 2
Sep 18
Botic van de Zandschulp
U.S. Open - New York · 3rd Round
Sep 6
Jesper de Jong
U.S. Open - New York · 2nd Round
Sep 4
Carlos Taberner
U.S. Open - New York · 1st Round
Sep 3
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–55 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 51% |
| Sets won | 78% | 50% |
| Games won | 59% | 51% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| ATP 500 | 1 | 0 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 0 |