Carlos Alcaraz vs Roman SafiullinPrediction, Head-to-Head Results, and Stats
Carlos Alcaraz and Roman Safiullin have met 3 times since 2023; Carlos Alcaraz leads 2–1. Their first meeting came at Rolex Paris Masters - Paris in 2023 on hard. On hard courts they are level 1–1. Alcaraz has won the last 2 meetings. Across all meetings Alcaraz has taken 5 sets to Safiullin's 2. Their most recent meeting: Carlos Alcaraz won at U.S. Open - New York (2026).
Spread & Straight-Sets Form
Completed best-of-3 matches · Last 12 months
| Indicator | Alcaraz | Safiullin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indicator | Carlos Alcaraz | Roman Safiullin | ||
| Wins in straight sets | 72% | 18/25 | 62% | 21/34 |
| Wins a set when losing | 40% | 2/5 | 43% | 6/14 |
| Goes to a deciding set | 30% | 9/30 | 40% | 19/48 |
| Covers −1.5 sets as favorite | 64% | 18/28 | 50% | 15/30 |
| Covers +1.5 sets as underdog | 0% | 0/2 | 67% | 10/15 |
| Tiebreak sets won | 54% | 7/13 | 59% | 10/17 |
| Wins after taking set 1 | 95% | 21/22 | 93% | 26/28 |
| Wins 2-0 after taking set 1 | 82% | 18/22 | 75% | 21/28 |
Colored rows are higher-is-better: green above 50%, red below. Favorite/underdog set by book odds; cover rows count only matches with odds on record. Head-to-head: 2 of 2 completed meetings ended in straight sets (Alcaraz 1, Safiullin 1).
Style Matchup
Playing styles and historical archetype record
Alcaraz
👑 The Complete Package
Safiullin
💥 Big Hitter
Matchup analysis
The 💥 Big Hitter archetype wins about 53% vs 👑 The Complete Package across 1,618 matches in our dataset: a stylistic lean toward Roman Safiullin.
Big Hitter players often use power groundstrokes and high winner count to pressure the the complete package's elite serve & return.
Previous meetings
3 career meetings, newest first
Aug 31, 2026
U.S. Open - New York
H Hard · 1st Round
Jul 31, 2024
Olympics - Paris
C Clay · 3rd Round
Oct 31, 2023
Rolex Paris Masters - Paris
H Hard · 2nd Round
Prop Research
Hit rates on common betting markets · Last 90 days
| Outcome | Alcaraz | Safiullin | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome | Carlos Alcaraz | Roman Safiullin | ||
| 1 or more | 92% | 11/12 | 100% | 15/15 |
| 3 or more | 75% | 9/12 | 93% | 14/15 |
| 5 or more | 25% | 3/12 | 80% | 12/15 |
| 10 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 15 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 13% | 2/15 |
| 20 or more | 0% | 0/12 | 0% | 0/15 |
Player ROI
Hypothetical if you put 1u on each player to win every one of their matches · Last 90 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| W-L | 11–1 | 9–6 |
| Avg odds | 1.15 | 1.90 |
| ROI % | +4.3% | -10.7% |
| Units P/L | +0.51u | -1.61u |
Travel
Last 30 days
| Metric | Alcaraz | Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| Countries | 3 | 1 |
| Events | 3 | 3 |
| Matches | 7 | 10 |
| Distance | 7,032 mi · 11,317 km | 1,361 mi · 2,191 km |
| Route | GBR → JPN → CHN | CHN |
Host country from each tournament in the last 30 days, including the current event even when a player arrived on a bye. Route is the order of countries visited; consecutive stops in the same country are shown once. Distance is the great-circle total between host cities, shown only when every stop in the window is geocoded. A rough fatigue signal, not a headline stat.
Common opponents
Results vs. opponents both players faced · Last 12 months
Alcaraz has a higher win rate against shared opponents (86% vs Safiullin's 43%).
| Opponent | Alcaraz | Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| Andrey Rublev | W 76 64 | L 26 63 46 |
| Daniil Medvedev | L 36 67 | L 57 46 |
| Jaime Faria | W 46 60 63 62 | W 46 64 76 |
| Novak Djokovic | W 26 62 63 75 | L 67 36 63 36 |
| Joao Fonseca | W 64 64 | W 63 63 63 |
| Casper Ruud | W 61 76 | L 26 67 75 60 26 |
| Valentin Royer | W 62 75 | W 61 62 |
Recent Form
Last five matches per player
Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 10
Jiri Lehecka
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Final
Oct 6
Jaume Munar
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Semifinals
Oct 5
Denis Shapovalov
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · Quarterfinals
Oct 4
Matteo Arnaldi
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Alex Michelsen
Japan Open Tennis Championships - Tokyo · 1st Round
Oct 1
Taylor Fritz
Laver Cup - London · Round Robin
Sep 26
Ben Shelton
U.S. Open - New York · Quarterfinals
Sep 9
Francisco Cerundolo
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 2nd Round
Oct 9
Rinky Hijikata
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round
Oct 7
Shintaro Mochizuki
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 3rd Round Qualifying
Oct 6
Alexis Galarneau
Shanghai Rolex Masters - Shanghai · 1st Round Qualifying
Oct 5
Andrey Rublev
China Open - Beijing · 2nd Round
Oct 3
Flavio Cobolli
China Open - Beijing · 1st Round
Oct 1
Daniil Medvedev
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Semifinals
Sep 28
Bu Yunchaokete
Hangzhou Open - Hangzhou · Quarterfinals
Sep 27
Rivalry momentum
Cumulative head-to-head lead over time
Win rate
Matches, sets and games won · Last 12 months · 42–55 matches
| Metric | Alcaraz | Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| Matches won | 86% | 69% |
| Sets won | 78% | 61% |
| Games won | 59% | 54% |
Record by tier
Head-to-head record by tournament tier
| Stage | Alcaraz | Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Slam | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 1 | 0 |
| ATP Masters 1000 | 0 | 1 |
By surface
Head-to-head record per surface
| Surface | Alcaraz | Safiullin |
|---|---|---|
| Hard | 1 | 1 |
| Clay | 1 | 0 |
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